For an economics geek like me, Christmas always comes early in the form of an annual forecast for Colorado.

It was the same treat yet again this year when the research division of the Leeds School of Business at the University of Colorado at Boulder unwrapped its business and economic outlook report for 2024. The report covers no less than 11 industry sectors and six geographic regions, including Mesa County. Oh my. There’s something for everybody.

And once again considerable space was set aside on the Business Times website for coverage of the report and the forecast for the year ahead. If you haven’t already, I hope you really will want to read all about it.

But wait, as the television pitch promises, there’s more. The Grand Junction Area Chamber of Commerce hosts an annual economic outlook luncheon featuring Rich Wobbekind, faculty director of the research division at the Leeds School of Business. Those who don’t necessarily want to take my words for it can hear it directly from the economist’s mouth. Again, I’m something of an economics geek. But Dr. Wobbekind is as entertaining as he is informative. His presentations are well worth the price of admission — which in Grand Junction also includes lunch.

So what’s in store for 2024?

According to the summary of the section about Mesa County, the outlook is mostly encouraging: “As Mesa County continues a controlled growth trajectory, the industry base continues to diversify, which is essential for ensuring economic resilience and sustainability.”

It doesn’t necessarily take an economist or the editor of a business journal to notice the new businesses opening operations in the Grand Valley, the existing businesses expanding and construction projects under way. That’s an indicator, of course, of business and economic conditions. Moreover, it’s a leading indicator that signals what likely will be subsequent growth in payrolls.

As is usually the case with economics, the news isn’t all good.

Hampered by higher interest rates on mortgages, real estate activity has dropped in Mesa County. Through the first 11 months of 2023, transactions were down 24.3 percent. The combined dollar volume of those deals fell 25.1 percent compared to the same span in 2022.

While the latest seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate remains low at 3.2 percent, there was little growth in payrolls and the labor force over the past year.

Statewide, the Colorado Business Economic Outlook report calls for the addition of 41,900 jobs in 2024 as gains in seven industry sectors are expected to more than offset losses in four other sectors. But headwinds are likely to blow, including not only high interest rates, but also inflation, labor shortages and the prospect of decreased consumer spending.

Nothing’s ever certain. But I remain hopeful 2024 will be a good year.
The realization of that hope would be a good Christmas gift, too. One that would keep giving.

Phil Castle is editor of the Business Times. Reach him at phil@thebusinesstimes.com
or 424-5133.