Phil Castle, The Business Times

What’s described as a controlled growth trajectory is expected to continue in Mesa County in 2024, according to the latest results of an annual business and economic forecast.

Job growth will persist in Colorado with projected gains in seven industry sectors more than offsetting losses in four other sectors.

Nationwide, economic growth could slow, although labor demand still will outstrip supply and inflation likely will relent.

Rich Wobbekind, faculty director of the research division of the Leeds School of Business at the University of Colorado at Boulder, reviewed the local, state and national outlook for the year ahead during a presentation hosted by the Grand Junction Area Chamber of Commerce.

The division compiles the Colorado Business and Economic Outlook report with sections for industry sectors and geographic regions. Business, industry and government officials contribute to the report.

A section about Mesa County included contributions from Steve Jozefcyk, deputy director of the Grand Junction Economic Partnership, and Nathan Perry, an economics professor at Colorado Mesa University. The section also included information from Bray & Co. Real Estate, the Grand Junction Regional Airport, Mesa County Workforce Center and Visit Grand Junction.

“As Mesa County continues a controlled growth trajectory, the industry base continues to diversify, which is essential for ensuring economic resilience and sustainability,” the report stated.

Wobbekind said a more diverse economy with wage, income and population growth bode well for Mesa County. While housing prices have escalated, they remain comparatively lower than other areas.

Construction activity also increased in Mesa County in 2023, Wobbekind said, including infrastructure and multifamily housing.

The outlook for a number of industry sectors in Colorado affects the outlook for the Mesa County economy, he said, including what he expects will be strong growth for the leisure and hospitality industry. Commodity prices have decreased for agricultural products, though, even as production costs have increased. Manufacturing of durable goods has declined.

Statewide, employment is expected to increase 41,900 in 2024, a 1.4 percent gain over 2023.

The professional and business services sector is expected to add the most jobs in 2024 at 14,500. Government  payrolls, which account for nearly one in six jobs in Colorado, are expected to increase 10,900.

Employment also is forecast to increase 9,400 in education and health services, 5,000 in leisure and hospitality, 1,300 in other services and 1,200 in natural resources and mining. The trade, transportation and utilities sector — the largest employer in Colorado — is projected to add 5,300 jobs.

Employment is projected to decrease in four sectors: 2,300 in construction, 1,400 in manufacturing, 1,000 in information and 800 in financial activities.

Nationally, employment recovered rapidly following the COVID-19 pandemic, Wobbekind said. In fact, most industries face labor shortages. On average, there’s 1.5 job openings in the United States for every one person counted among those unsuccessfully looking for work.

Wobbekind said he was surprised by the revised estimate for growth in gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services produced in the country. GDP rose at an annual rate of 4.3 percent in the third quarter.

Slower GDP growth is forecast for 2024, however, — perhaps 1 percent, he said.

While some forecasts call for a recession, others predict slowing growth.

Higher wages and government stimulus checks boosted consumer buying power. But household debt has increased as student loan payments resume. Retail sales have slowed, he said.

A number of challenges are likely to arise in 2024, Wobbekind said, including those related to labor shortages, slowing consumer spending and commercial real estate activity and increasing government debt.