While holiday spending is expected to reach record levels, one survey of consumers also reflects what was described as a somewhat cautious mood.

The National Retail Federation forecast holiday spending in November and December to grow to between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion. If realized, that range would constitute a 3 percent to 4 percent gain over $929.5 billion in holiday spending in 2022.

“It’s not surprising to see holiday sales growth returning to pre-pandemic levels,” said Matthew Shay, president and chief executive officer of the National Retail Federation. “Overall household finances remain in goo shape and will continue to support the consumer’s ability to spend.”

The Conference Board reported, however, the results of its holiday spending survey portend a slight decrease in overall spending on holiday-related items — less on non-gift items, yet more on gifts.

“Food — a common non-gift holiday item — is expected to cost more this year compared to last, which may have lowered consumers’ desire to purchase non-gift items,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist of the Conference Board. “However, consumers still seem to want to engage in some holiday cheer as reflected in a rebound in gift spending after last year’s slump.”

The National Retail Federation projected online shopping and other non-store sales to increase between 7 percent and 9 percent to between $232.7 billion and $278.8 billion.

“Consumers remain in the driver’s seat and are resilient despite headwinds of inflation, higher gas prices, stringent credit conditions and elevated interest rates,” said Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist of the NRF. “We expect spending to continue through the end of the year on a range of terms and experiences, but at a slower pace. Solid job and wage growth will be contributing factors this holiday season, and consumers will be looking for deals and discounts to stretch their dollars.”

Kleinhenz said the holiday sales forecast also takes into account spending for services. “Service spending growth is strong and is growing faster than goods spending. The amount of spending on services is back in line with pre-pandemic trends.”

To meet holiday demand, the NRF projected retailers will hire between 345,000 and 450,000 seasonal workers, in line with the 391,000 seasonal hires in 2022.

The Conference Board reports the results of its holiday spending survey indicates U.S. consumers plan to spend an average of $985 on holiday-related items in 2023. That’s down about 2 percent from 2022.

Consumers said they expect to spend an average of $654 on holiday gifts, up 6.7 percent from last year. They intend to spend an average of $330 on non-gift holiday items, down 16 percent from last year.

Peterson said consumers under 45 years old plan to spend less on gifts this year, while those 45 and older expect to spend more. Slightly more consumers intend to purchase the majority of gifts online.

Among gift categories, consumers said they’re more likely to buy beauty products, gift cards, home decor and toys, Peterson said. They also said they’re more likely to pay for travel and vacations. Books and DVDs are less popular gifts compared to 2022.