
A measure of consumer confidence has edged up on more upbeat expectations for business and labor conditions, but still reflects concerns over inflation and the possibility of recession.
The Conference Board reported its Consumer Confidence Index rose eight-tenths of a point to 104.2 in March. A component of the index tracking the short-term outlook increased, but a component tracking assessments of current conditions decreased.
“While consumers feel a bit more confident about what’s ahead, they are still slightly less optimistic about the current landscape,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economics at the Conference Board, a member- driven think tank based in New York.
Ozyildirim said the gain reflects an improving outlook among consumers under 55 years old and for households earning $50,000 and more. Consumers expect inflation to remain elevated over the next year, though.
Asked about their spending plans for services over the next six months, consumers said they expect to decrease discretionary spending on amusement parks, dining and movies. They expect to increase spending on auto and home maintenance and health care, however. Spending on personal and pet care as well as such financial services as tax preparation will remain about the same.
The present situation component of the index fell 1.9 points to 151.1.
The proportion of consumers who responded to the survey upon which the March index was based who described as “good” rose four-tenths of a point to 18.4 percent. The share of those who called conditions “bad” rose more — 1.9 points to 19.3 percent.
The proportion of consumers who said jobs were “plentiful” fell 2.1 points to 49.1 percent. The share of those who said jobs were “hard to get” held steady at 10.3 percent.
The expectations component of the index rose 2.6 points to 73. The component has remained below 80 for 12 out of the last 13 months. A reading below 80 often signals a recession within the next year.
The share of consumers who said they expect business conditions to improve over the next six months rose nine-tenths of a point to 15.5 percent. The proportion of those who said they anticipated worsening conditions fell 3.1 points to 18.5 percent.
The share of consumers who said they expect more jobs to become available in coming months rose a half point to 15 percent. The proportion of those anticipating fewer jobs fell 1.3 points to 19.9 percent.
While 14.9 percent of consumers said they expect their incomes to increase, up a half point from February, 13.6 percent anticipated decreases. That’s up two points from February.