Index tracking rural economy remains in negative territory

Ernie Goss

A monthly index tracking the economy in rural areas of Colorado and nine other states remained in negative territory for a ninth straight month.

The overall reading for the Rural Main Street Index fell 1.6 points in May. At 44.2, the latest reading remained below growth-neutral 50.

The overall reading for Colorado dropped 12.7 points. But at 61.5 was the highest among the 10 states.

Ernie Goss — an economics professor at Creighton University in Omaha, Neb., who compiles the Rural Main Street Index— attributed the May decline to a combination of higher interest rates, weaker agriculture commodity prices and higher grain storage costs. The index is based on the results of monthly surveys of bank executives in rural areas of the 10-state region.

In Colorado, several components of the index retreated in May. The new hiring index fell three points to 62.5. The farmland and ranchland price index fell 5.2 points to 58.2.

According to separate information from the International Trade Association, year-to-date exports of agricultural goods and livestock from Colorado in 2024 were up 190.4 percent from the same span in 2023.

Across the region, a component of the index tracking confidence fell 8.7 points to 28.8, the lowest level since November 2023. “Weak agriculture commodity prices and farm exports combined with downturns in farm equipment sales over the past several months continued to constraint banker confidence,” Goss said.

A new hiring component decreased 6.8 points to 50 as only 7.7 percent of bankers reported increases in hiring from the previous month.

The home sales component dropped increased 11.2 points, but at 46 remained below growth-neutral as higher interest rates on mortgages and low residential inventories hampered real estate activity.

The loan volume component retreated to 82, down 3.4 point from what was a record high 85.4 in April. Readings for checking accounts and certificates of deposit both fell.

The component for farming and ranching land prices fell 8.6 points to 47.9, slipping below growth-neutral 50 for the first time in more than four years.

The component for farm equipment sales dropped 13.7 points to 34.