Phil Castle, Business Times

The monthly unemployment rate spiked again in Mesa County in January, but to a lower level that offers encouragement of improving labor conditions in the year ahead.

More will be known when February numbers are released. There’s also a risk of recession that could affect the Mesa County market.

“I think it’s going to be an interesting year,” said Lindsay Bullock, director of the Mesa County Workforce Center in Grand Junction.

The seasonally unadjusted jobless rate climbed to 3.7 percent in January, according to the latest estimates from the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment. That’s up eight-tenths of a point from December and a jobless rate that was revised downward two-tenths of a point to 2.9 percent.

At this time last year, however, the rate was higher at 5 percent.

Bullock said the jobless rate traditionally spikes in January to its highest level of the year in Mesa County following layoffs after the holidays and less hiring for jobs affected by winter weather. While the rate jumped again this year, overall unemployment is at a lower level.

Between December and January, Mesa County payrolls edged down 54 to 74,611. The number of people counted among those unsuccessfully looking for work increased 604 to 2,832. The labor force, which includes the employed and unemployed, grew 550 to 77,443.

Over the past year, payrolls increased 2,344 or about 3.2 percent. The ranks of the unemployed decreased 980. The labor force grew 1,364.

January labor estimates aren’t released until March because of annual revisions to information for the previous year. February estimates are scheduled for release March 24.

Bullock said labor shortages persist for some industry sectors. But more people have returned to the work force in part because of higher prices for food and other products.

The number of job orders posted at the Mesa County Workforce Center — one measure of labor demand — decreased in January with 675 orders, Bullock said. That’s down from 1,017 orders for the same month a year ago. The drop in the number of job openings those orders involved wasn’t as big, however, at 1,444. That’s down from 1,642 a year ago.

Bullock said she’s encouraged the January jump in joblessness wasn’t as high this year and unemployment rates will trend down as spring brings more seasonal hiring. But she’s also concerned a recession could set back the Mesa County market.

Meanwhile, efforts continue to identify what employers and job seekers need and make matches, she said. “There’s a lot of work being done on the back side.”

Seasonally unadjusted unemployment rates also increased in neighboring Western Colorado counties in January — up 1.1 points to 4.2 percent in Delta County, eight-tenths of a point to 3.6 percent in Montrose County, six-tenths of a point to 3.5 percent in Rio Blanco County and a half point to 3 percent in Garfield County.

The statewide seasonally adjusted jobless rate held steady between December and January at 2.8 percent. The state rate has remained below 3 percent for nine consecutive months.

Nonfarm payrolls edged up 800 between December and January with government jobs accounting for all of that gain.

Since January 2022, nonfarm payrolls increased 57,000 with the biggest gains in the leisure and hospitality; professional and business services; and trade, transportation and utilities sectors. Payrolls declined in the financial activities and information sectors.

Over the last year, the average workweek for Colorado employees on private, nonfarm payrolls shortened a tenth of an hour to 33.4 hours. Average hourly earnings increased $1.96 to $36.14.