A monthly index forecasting economic conditions in the United States has decreased, continuing a trend that portends recession.

The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined four-tenths of a percent to 115.9 in September. Separate measures of current and past conditions increased.

The downward trajectory of the Leading Economic Index suggests a recession is likely before the end of the year, said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economics at the Conference Board. “The six-month growth rate of the LEI feel deeper into negative territory in September, and weaknesses among the leading indicators were widespread.”

The LEI declined 2.8 percent between March and September, more than offsetting a 1.4 percent gain over the previous six months.

Gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services produced in the United States, will increase 1.5 percent on a year-over-year basis in 2022. But then slow further in the first half of 2023, the Conference Board projected.

GDP fell at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter and six-tenths of a percent in the second quarter.

For September, five of 10 components of the LEI advanced, including average weekly manufacturing hours, building permits, interest rate spread and new orders for consumer goods. A decline in average weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits also bolstered the index. Five components retreated: consumer expectations for business conditions, leading credit and new orders indexes, new orders for capital goods and the Standard and Poor’s 500 index of stock prices.

The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose two-tenths of a percent to 108.9 in September. All four of the indicators of the index advanced: industrial production, nonfarm payrolls, personal income and manufacturing and trade sales.

The CEI increased nine-tenths of a percent over the past six months.

The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) increased six-tenths of a percent to 116.2 in September. Five of seven components advanced, including the average prime rate charged by banks, commercial and industrial financing, inventories and the price of services. A decrease in the average duration of unemployment benefits also boosted the index. Consumer credit and the cost of labor held steady.