A monthly index forecasting economic conditions in the United States continues to decline, signaling what could be a recession.

The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Index decreased seven-tenths of a percent to 106.1 in June. Separate measures of current and past conditions remained unchanged.

The Leading Economic Index fell 4.2 percent over the past six months and has declined for 15 months. That’s the longest streak since 2007 and 2008 and a period leading up to the Great Recession.

Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators for the Conference Board, attributed the latest reading to gloomier consumer expectations, fewer new orders for goods and slowing in housing construction.

“June’s data suggests economic activity will continue to decelerate in the months ahead,” Zabinska-La Monica said. “We forecast that the U.S economy is likely to be in recession from Q3 2023 to Q1 2024. Elevated prices, tighter monetary policy, hard-to-get credit and reduced government spending are poised to dampen economic growth further.”

For June, six of 10 indicators of the Leading Economic Index retreated, including building permits, consumer expectations for business conditions, interest rate spread and leading credit and new orders indexes. An increase in claims for unemployment benefits also pulled down the index. New orders for consumer goods and stock prices increased. Average weekly manufacturing hours and new orders for capital goods held steady.

The Coincident Economic Index held steady at 110. The index increased six-tenths of a percent over the past six months.

For June, three of four indicators of the index advanced — nonfarm payrolls, personal income and sales. Industrial production retreated.

The Lagging Economic Index remained unchanged at 118.4. The index held steady over the past three months.

For June, three of seven indicators of the index rose, including the average prime rate charged by banks and consumer credit. A decrease in the duration of unemployment also bolstered the index. Commercial and industrial financing, and the cost of labor and services retreated. Inventories remained unchanged.