An index forecasting economic conditions in the United States continues to increase, but at slower pace that reflects mounting concerns over the pandemic, inflation and supply chains.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index increased two-tenths of a percent to 117.5 in September.  A separate measure of past performance also increased, while a measure of current conditions remained unchanged.

Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at the Conference Board, said the latest results suggest the economy remains on a more moderate growth trajectory. “The delta variant, rising inflation fears and supply chain disruptions are all creating headwinds for the U.S. economy.”

Still, the Conference Board forecasts 5.7 percent growth year-over-year in gross domestic product in 2021 and 3.8 percent growth in 2022, Ozyildirim said The Leading Economic Index has increased 5.4 percent over the past six months, a faster pace than the 3.7 percent gain over the six months before that.

By comparison, GDP grew at an annual rate of 6.7 percent for the second quarter and 6.3 percent for the first quarter.

For September, six of 10 indicators of the Leading Economic Index advanced, including interest rate spread, a leading credit index, new orders for both consumer and capital goods and a new orders index. A decrease in average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance also bolstered the index. Average weekly manufacturing hours, building permits, consumer expectations for business conditions and stock prices retreated.

The Coincident Economic Index held steady at 105.8. The index has increased 1.3 percent over the past six months.

For September, three of four indicators advanced: nonfarm payrolls, personal income and sales. Industrial production retreated.

The Lagging Economic Index rose three-tenths of a percent to 106.5. The index has increased eight-tenths of a percent over the past three months.

For September, four of seven components advanced, including commercial and industrial financing, inventories and labor costs. A decline in the average duration of unemployment also pushed up the index. Consumer credit and the cost of services retreated. The average prime rate charged by banks remained unchanged.