A monthly index forecasting economic conditions in the United States continues to decline, signaling slowing and what could be recession.

The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Indicator fell a half of a percent to 103 in November. Separate measures of current and past conditions both increased.

Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at the Conference Board, said the latest leading indicators point to a lack of momentum in economic growth. “The U.S. LEI suggests a down shift of economic activity ahead. As a result, the Conference Board forecasts a short and shallow recession in the first half of 2024.”

The Leading Economic Index fell 3.5 percent over the past six months.

Gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services produced in the country, rose at an annual rate of 4.9 percent during the third quarter of 2023.

For November, six of 10 indicators of the Leading Economic Index declined, including average weekly manufacturing hours,  building permits, consumer expectations, interest rate spread and a new orders index. An increase in average weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits also pulled down the index. New orders for capital and consumer goods increased, as did stock prices. A leading credit index held steady.

The Coincident Economic Index rose two-tenths of a point to 111.2 The index has increased 1 percent over the past six months.

For November all four indicators increased — industrial production, nonfarm payrolls, personal income and sales.

The Lagging Economic Index increased a half of a percent to 119.2. The index increased seven-tenths of a percent over the past three months.

For November, four of seven components of the index advanced, including consumer credit, cost of services and inventories. A decrease in the average duration of unemployment also pushed up the index. Commercial and industrial financing and labor costs pulled down the index. The average prime rate held steady.