Phil Castle, The Business Times

The unemployment rate continues to edge down in Mesa County as labor demand remains strong across most industries.

But the effects of broader economic forces — rising inflation and interest rates among them — could show up in the local market during the second half of the year, said Curtis Englehart, director of the Mesa County Workforce Center in Grand Junction. “We’re definitely not immune to that.”

For now, Englehart said he’s cautiously optimistic as local indicators remain strong.

The seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate slipped to 3.3 percent in May, according to the latest estimates from the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment. That’s down a tenth of a point from April and a jobless rate that was revised higher to 3.4 percent. In May 2021, the rate stood at 5.8 percent.

Between April and May, Mesa County payrolls declined 92 to 75,721. But the number of people counted among those unsuccessfully looking for work declined more — 106 to 2,544. The labor force, which includes the employed and unemployed, shrank 198 to 78,265.

The labor force has declined two consecutive months — which Englehart said doesn’t yet raise alarms, but is worth watching.

Over the past year, payrolls have increased 3,382, a gain of nearly 4.7 percent. The ranks of the unemployed dropped 1,927. The labor force grew 1,455.

The labor market remains tight, Englehart said, with continued demand across all industries. The number of job orders posted at the Mesa County Workforce Center has dropped on a year-over-year basis, however, compared to what he described as “crazy” demand in 2021.

For May 2022, 727 job orders were posted. That’s down almost 38 percent from May 2021. Through the first five months of 2022, 4,106 orders were posted. That’s a decline of nearly 9 percent from the same span in 2021.

Looking ahead, Englehart said he expects the jobless rate to jump in June — a seasonal spike attributed to high school and college graduates entering the work force who haven’t yet found jobs.

Afterward, Englehart said the jobless rate could edge further down even as the labor force grows.

The effects of higher prices and interest rates could affect the market, though, in making it more expensive for people who commute to jobs in Mesa County and seek mortgages to buy homes.

Seasonally unadjusted unemployment rates also dropped in neighboring Western Colorado counties between April and May — two-tenths of a point to 3.1 percent in Delta County and 3.6 percent in Rio Blanco County and four-tenths of a point to 2.9 percent in Montrose County. The jobless rate held steady at 2.7 percent in Garfield County.

The statewide seasonally adjusted unemployment rate edged down a tenth of a point to 3.5 percent, the lowest level since the rate stood at 2.8 percent in February 2020 and just before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.

Nonfarm payrolls in Colorado increased 5,400 between April and May. Over the past two years, the private sector added 414,000 jobs, more than offsetting jobs lost in early 2020 because of the pandemic and related restrictions.

Over the past year, nonfarm payrolls increased 124,600 with the biggest gains in the leisure and hospitality; professional and business services; and trade, transportation and utilities sectors. No sectors lost jobs during that period.

The average workweek for employees on private, nonfarm payrolls shortened two-tenths of an hour over the past year to 33.7 hours. Average hourly earnings increased $2.86 to $34.62.