Phil Castle, The Business Times

Even as the number of real estate transactions trends downward in Mesa County, higher prices and large commercial deals push dollar volume to record heights.

Robert Bray, chief executive officer of Bray Real estate in Grand Junction, sees lower inventories and higher prices as villains in slowing residential sales, while new construction has become a hero in helping to meet demand. Looking ahead, Bray said there’s the potential for higher interest rates on mortgages to play a role as well.

Annette Young, administrative coordinator at Heritage Title Co. in Grand Junction, agreed low inventories have slowed sales, but the market remains busy overall. 

Young said 480 transactions worth a total of $204 million were reported in Mesa County in October. While transactions fell 17.1 percent compared to the same month last year, dollar volume rose 9.7 percent.

Just 18 transactions accounted for a total of $49 million, Young said. They included the sale of an apartment complex on Knollwood Drive in Grand Junction for $10 million, the property where Tractor Supply is located for $5.5 million and a manufacturing warehouse and 20 acres where Grand Junction Steel was located for $5.5 million.

Through the first 10 months of 2021, 5,191 transactions worth a collective $1.93 billion were reported. Just 145 transactions accounted for a total of $326 million. Compared to the same span in 2020, transactions increased 11.5 percent and dollar volume rose 34.9 percent. 

With two months still left in 2021, dollar volume already has topped the previous peak of nearly $1.73 billion in 2006. Transactions remain below the 7,198 reported in 2005.

According to numbers Bray Real Estate tracks for the residential market, 295 transactions worth a combined $109 million were reported in October. Compared to the same month last year, transactions fell 28.2 percent and dollar volume dropped 23.2 percent.

Year-to-date residential activity for 2021 still outpaces 2020, however. Through October, 3,427 transactions worth a total of more than $1.25 billion were reported. Compared to the same span last year, transactions increased 1.5 percent and dollar volume rose 17.9 percent.

Bray said lower inventories and higher prices have prompted some homebuyers to take a break from what’s been a competition for listings with multiple offers above asking prices. 

Rising prices have made affordability a more pressing issue, he said. “You can’t keep up with that and not be affected.”

Residential inventories have picked up in recent months. The 395 active listings at the end of October constituted a 5.6 percent increase over the same time last year.

Low supplies and high demand continue to push prices higher. The median price for homes sold through the first 10 months of 2021 increased 15.1 percent to $328,000.

New home construction has helped to meet demand, Bray said. A total of 793 single family building permits were issued in Mesa County through the first 10 months of 2021, a 22 percent increase over the same span in 2020 on the way to what Bray expects will be a record year.

Bray said he expects the year-end number of residential transactions for 2021 to match or perhaps slip below 2020, but still considers 2021 a good year for residential real estate in Mesa County. Commercial activity has been strong, he said.

Looking further ahead, Bray said interest rates on mortgages remain historically low, but could edge up and eliminate some potential buyers.

Meanwhile, property foreclosure activity continues to decrease in Mesa County. Young said 22 filings and 18 sales were reported through the first 10 months in 2021.  That’s down 73.5 percent and 35.7 percent, respectively, from the same span in 2020. The seven resales of foreclosed properties in 2021 constituted less than 1 percent of all transactions, well below the 10 percent threshold Young considers indicative of a healthy market.