Outlook bright for commercial real estate in Mesa County

Cory Carlson

They’re universal questions: What does the future hold? What does it mean for me? While challenges remain, the outlook for Mesa County appears bright with sustainable growth for years to come.

Mesa County has been affected over its history by a series of boom-and-bust cycles. But the community also has enjoyed steady economic growth as a regional commercial center with the agricultural, education, health care and outdoor recreation sectors leading the way.

More recently, new industries and people have come to the area, attracted in part by tax incentives provided in so-called opportunity zones. That includes the aerospace, advanced manufacturing and technology sectors. A shift to remote work has enabled entrepreneurs to relocate and take advantage of the lifestyle.

The cumulative effects of these trends portend sustainable growth for years to come. Conservative estimates indicate the Mesa County population will increase 80,000 over the next 30 years. The news bodes well as the local population exceeds 150,000, a key metric to attracting regional and national franchises.

The need for more rooftops to keep pace with growth boosts all construction industry segments in Mesa County, providing still more job opportunities and demand for commercial space.

The dollar volume of real estate transactions totaled $1.729 billion through the first three quarters of 2021 in Mesa County, topping the previous peak of $1.72 billion in 2006. 

That record number reflects market demand as well as key metrics driving commercial real estate activity. If anything, 2021 has provided a snapshot of the growth potential and the desire for companies to consider Mesa County as their home. 

With the boom-and-bust roller coaster of the past behind us, the economy has diversified. That should inspire confidence in the local commercial real estate market.

Growing pains and other obstacles present challenges over the short term, among them inflation, labor shortages and supply chain issues. Such risk factors as interest rates, market conditions and vacancies affect real estate values and prices.

Considering, though, the upside for companies to identify Mesa County as a desirable destination and location, commercial real estate should remain a relatively safe investment. 

Although local, regional and national economic fundamentals and trends must always be considered, the future of Mesa County appears bright for years to come.