
A measure of optimism among small business owners has increased, but still reflects concerns over earnings and hiring.
“With small business owners’ views about future sales growth and business conditions dismal, owners want to hire and make money now from solid consumer spending,” said Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist for the National Federation of Independent Business. “Inflation has eased slightly on Main Street, but difficulty hiring remains a top business problem.”
The NFIB reported its Small Business Optimism Index rose nine-tenths of a point to 91.9 in July. The latest reading remained below the 49-year average of 98 for a 19th consecutive month.
The NFIB bases the index on the results of monthly surveys of members of the small business advocacy group, most of them small business owners. Between June and July, five of 10 components of the index advanced, one retreated and four remained unchanged.
The proportion of members who responded to the latest survey who expect the economy to improve over the next six months rose 10 points. But at a net negative 30 percent, more members anticipated worsening conditions.
A net 27 percent of members reported plans to increase capital outlays, up two points from June. A net 6 percent said they consider now a good time to expand.
The share of members who said they expect increased sales rose two points. But at a net negative 12 percent, more forecast decreased sales.
Expectations for earnings dropped six points to a net negative 30 percent. Among those reporting lower profits, 30 percent blamed weaker sales, 19 percent cited higher material costs and 18 percent attributed the trend to higher labor costs.
A net 17 percent of owners reported plans to increase staffing, up two points from June. But a net 42 percent also reported hard-to-fill job openings, unchanged from last month. Among those hiring or trying to hire, 92 percent of owners reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill.
A net 38 percent of owners reported raising compensation. A net 21 percent reported plans to raise compensation within the next three months.
The proportion of owners who reported plans to increase inventories rose a point to a net negative 2 percent. The share of those who reported existing inventories were too low held steady at a net negative 4 percent.
Asked to identify their single most important problem, 21 percent of owners cited inflation, down three points from June. A net 25 percent of owners reported raising average selling prices. Price increases were most frequent in the finance, retail, wholesale and construction sectors.