Phil Castle, The Business Times

While a pandemic sidetracked business and economic growth in Mesa County, the area is recovering. The prognosis for 2022 is mostly upbeat.

“The overall health isn’t bad,” says Rich Wobbekind, senior economist at the Leeds School of Business at the University of Colorado at Boulder. 

Higher commodity and natural gas prices bode well for the agriculture and energy sectors in the region. Although prices have appreciated, housing remains more affordable than in other areas of Colorado, Wobbekind says. “The area should be OK.”

The business research division at the Leeds School of Business compiles an annual business and economic forecast for Colorado with sections for various industry sectors and geographic regions. Business, industry and government officials contribute to the report. 

Wobbekind is scheduled to detail the 2022 forecast for Mesa County as well as the state and nation in a presentation hosted by the Grand Junction Area Chamber of Commerce. The economic outlook luncheon is set for noon to 1:30 p.m. Dec. 13 at the Colorado Mesa University south ballroom. Tickets sell for $23 for chamber members and $28 for others.

The section in the 2022 forecast about Mesa County included contributions from Steve Jozefcyzk, deputy director of the Grand Junction Economic Partnership, and Nathan Perry, an economics professor at Colorado Mesa University. The section also included information from Bray & Co. Real Estate, the Mesa County Workforce Center and Visit Grand Junction.

“While the pandemic has had an impact on all aspects of the community, the county is recovering and outperforming other counties and the state,” the report states. “The community in the Grand Valley is resilient and will continue to forge ahead in the face of adversity.”

As of October, the latest month for which estimates are available, the seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate in Mesa County stood at 4.7 percent. The jobless rate hit 12.8 percent in April 2020, but subsequently retreated. Mesa County lost 8,700 jobs from March 2020 to April 2020, but recovered 6,600 jobs by September 2021.

As of September 2021, employment in Mesa County totaled 62,800. The largest employers were education and health services; government; retail trades; leisure and hospitality; and mining, logging and construction. Of the top 10 employers in the county in 2020, five were in the health care industry. Mesa County School District 51 remained the largest employer.

Average annual wages rose 4.6 percent year-over-year in Mesa County to $48,015 in 2020. Wages remain lower than the statewide average of $67,431.

Real estate activity continues to increase in Mesa County. Through November, 5,621 transactions worth a total of $2.1 billion were reported in Mesa County in 2021. Compared to the same span in 2020, transactions increased 9.9 percent and dollar volume soared 32.6 percent to its highest level ever.

Residential real estate activity also increased with a 1.2 percent gain in transactions and 17.4 percent jump in dollar volume.

The median price of homes sold through the first 11 months of 2021 rose to $330,000. That’s a 15.4 percent increase over the same span in 2020.

Through November, 864 building permits were issued for single-family homes in Mesa County in 2021, a 21 percent increase over the same span in 2020.

Tax collections, a measure of sales, also have increased. As of October, the City of Grand Junction collected a total of  more than $57.4 million in sales and use taxes in 2021, a 21 percent increase over the year before. Mesa County collected a total of more than $40.2 million in sales and use taxes, also a 21 percent gain.

Hotel occupancy, one measure of tourism, dropped in Grand Junction at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in April 2020, but rebounded. For October 2021, the weekly occupancy rate of 67 percent was 19 points higher than the national average rate.

Grand Junction lodging tax collections, a measure of hotel and motel stays, exceeded $1.5 million for 2021 through October, a 63.1 percent increase over the same span in 2020.

The opening of the Palisade Plunge mountain bike trail connecting the top of the Grand Mesa to Palisade is expected to bring as much as $5 million a year to Mesa County.

Businesses continue to express interest in relocating to the Grand Valley, particularly outdoor recreation companies and firms with remote work forces. The pandemic also accelerated a trend in which professionals who can work from anywhere have moved to the Grand Valley.

The Grand Junction Economic Partnership reported it worked with five businesses that moved to the area in the midst of the pandemic. The Small Business Development Center in Grand Junction assisted with 12 business starts.

Since 2016, 22 companies in Mesa County have been approved for the Rural Jump-Start Program offering tax credits to businesses that create new jobs. One company was approved in 2021 and three more could be approved by the end of the year.

Valkyrie Recovery Systems, one of the businesses accepted into the Rural Jump-Start Program, recently relocated to the Grand Valley and expects too soon start producing parachutes for vessel recovery for the aerospace and commercial space markets.

Several companies have built new headquarters in the Riverfront at Las Colonias Park in Grand Junction. Nearby, a mixed-use commercial and residential park is planned for what’s called the Riverfront at Dos Rios.