The start of a new year provokes the urge to peer ahead and wonder what the next 12 months hold in store. It’s a natural curiosity for people. It’s a matter of business for owners and managers trying to align sales projections with decisions about everything from inventories and staffing to capital outlays on equipment and even buildings. That’s one good reason why economic forecasts attract so much attention. Not to mention use up so much ink and space in business journals.

So what’s in store for 2024?

As usual, it depends on who you ask. There’s seldom a consensus. But news stories about various indexes, labor estimates and real estate sales offer some clues. They’re like pieces of a jigsaw puzzle that can be assembled to create a bigger picture. Not coincidentally, those stories appear on this very website. So let’s review:

Colorado business leaders are more confident heading into the new year, according to the latest results of a quarterly survey tracking their expectations. The Leeds Business Confidence Index rose 1.7 points for the first quarter. But at 45.3, the overall score still reflected more negative than positive responses. The outlook was most optimistic for the state economy and most pessimistic for capital expenditures.

Small business owners remain cautious as well, according to the latest Small Business Optimism Index compiled by the National Federation of Independent Business. The index rose 1.3 points for December. But at 91.9, the overall score remained below the average reading of 98 for a 24th consecutive month.

For their part — and it’s an important one for businesses, especially retailers — consumers are more optimistic, pushing the Consumer Confidence Index up 9.7 points in December. Consumers were more upbeat in their assessment of current business and labor conditions as well as their expectations for the next six months.

An index of leading indicators — one specifically designed to forecast economic conditions — is less encouraging. The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Index fell a half of a percent between October and November and 3.5 percent over the past six months. That signals slower growth, including the possibility of what’s foreseen as a shallow and short recession in the first half of 2024.

In Mesa County, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has held steady at 3.7 percent for three straight months. That number could be lower. It was a year ago. But the jobless rate also reflects a stability in the labor market that’s expected to continue in the coming year.

Real estate activity in Mesa County — another important economic indicator — slowed in 2023 even as interest rates on mortgages moved higher. Transactions fell to their lowest level since 2013, and dollar volume declined to its lowest level since 2018. The outlook for lower interest rates bodes well, though, for 2024.

Nobody — not even economists or newspaper editors — can reliably predict the future. We can only hope for the best and that great expectations will be realized.