Phil Castle, The Business Times

Overall real estate sales increased on a year-over-year basis in Mesa County in November, the first such gain in nearly two years.

The increase was attributed, though, more to slowing in 2022 than any surge in activity in 2023. Residential real estate sales declined in November, although the difference from a year ago was smaller.

Higher interest rates and lower residential inventories continue to affect the market, although more conducive conditions could develop next year.

“My guess is we’ve seen the high side of interest rates,” said Robert Bray, chief executive officer of Bray & Co. Real Estate based in Grand Junction.

Annette Young, administrative coordinator at Heritage Title Co. in Grand Junction, said  272 real estate transactions worth a total of $113 million were reported in Mesa County in November. Compared to the same month a year ago, transactions increased 6.25 percent and dollar volume rose 2.4 percent.

The year-over-year increase was the first since December 2021, Young said.

The gain reflected slowing in the market a year ago, she said. “The market we’re in today is the market we were in last year.”

Nine transactions worth a total of $18 million bolstered dollar volume in November 2023, Young said, including the sale of an industrial steel fabrication facility for $3.2 million, a multi-use commercial property for $3 million and vacant commercial land for $2.95 million.

Through the first 11 months of 2023, 3,369 transactions worth a collective $1.45 billion were reported, Young said. Compared to the same span in 2022, transactions declined 24.3 percent and dollar volume dropped 25.1 percent.

According to numbers Bray & Co. tracks for the residential market, 179 transactions worth a total of more than $75.2 million were reported in Mesa County in November. Compared to the same month a year ago, transactions were down 5.8 percent and dollar volume down 4.4 percent.

Those proportional differences were lower than October, though, when transactions decreased 35.4 percent and dollar volume fell 28.7 percent.

Through the first 11 months of 2023, 2,472 residential transactions worth a total of almost $1.1 billion were reported. Compared to the same span a year ago, transactions were down 20 percent and dollar volume down 19.1 percent.

“There’s no question it’s the interest rate,” Bray said.

Higher interest rates on mortgages drive monthly payments higher, and the increased financing costs make homes less affordable, he said.

Residential inventories remain low — even lower than this time last year. As of the end of November, there were 523 active listings in Mesa County. That was down 8.7 percent from the 573 listings at the same time last year.

Many people who otherwise want to sell their homes are reluctant to do so because the interest rates on their mortgages are lower than what new financing would cost, Bray said. There’s some seasonality to the situation, too, in that people also are reluctant to sell their homes until after the holidays.

The median price of homes sold through the first 11 months of 2023 edged up to $390,000. But the 1.3 percent increase over the same period last year was smaller than what’s been double-digit proportional increases, Bray said.

Looking to 2024, Young and Bray said they expect market trends to continue for as long as interest rates remain higher. “It’s kind of more of the same,” Young said.

But Bray said there are indications interest rates could relent. The Mesa County economy remains strong and demand for housing persists, he said.

Meanwhile, property foreclosure activity in Mesa County remains lower than last year. Through the first 11 months of 2023, 225 foreclosure filings and 42 foreclosure sales were reported, Young said. that’s down four-tenths of a percent and 4.5 percent, respectively, from the same span in 2022.