Phil Castle, The Business Times

While Nathan Perry doesn’t expect a recession, he does anticipate what could be slowing in the Mesa County economy.

“I think we could see growth slow a little bit,” said Perry, an associate professor of economics at Colorado Mesa University who prepares a quarterly economic update for Mesa County.

His latest update issued in January details what Perry said was a disappointing gain in gross domestic product given other indicators signaling the potential for growth. The labor market showed some signs of softening even as sales tax collections rose slightly.

Household and personal income continued to increase, however.

And Perry said he expects inflation and interest rates to moderate.

Asked in a telephone interview with the Business Times to assess the fourth quarter of 2023 in a word, Perry said “slower.”

According to the latest estimates for gross domestic product — the broad measure of goods and services produced in the county — GDP grew only a tenth of a percent in 2022 compared to 2021, Perry said. “I thought that was really disappointing.”

County level statistics for GDP lag a year. GDP increased 3.74 percent in 2021, rebounding from a 2.4 percent decline in 2020 and the COVID-19 pandemic.

According to labor estimates for 2023 through November, Mesa County employment increased 779. The seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate held steady in Mesa County at 3.2 percent in November and October.

According to separate estimates from the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment for December, Mesa County payrolls edged up just 61 during 2023 to 74,726. The number of people counted among those unsuccessfully looking for work increased rose 477 to 2,705. The jobless rate stood at 3.5 percent in December, up from 2.9 percent a year ago.

Between the third quarters of 2022 and 2023, the biggest job gains occurred in the educational services,  health care and public administration categories, Perry said. After losses for several quarters, health care employment rebounded, he said.

The biggest losses occurred in the finance and insurance, mining and retail trade sectors.

Employment could grow in 2024, but at what could be a slow pace given what are already low unemployment rates, he said.

Several standard of living measures increased, Perry said. Median household income in Mesa County rose 9.5 percent from 2021 to 2022 to $69,578. Personal income per capita — that is, total earnings divided by the population — increased 2.7 percent to $54,654.

The percentage of the Mesa County population below the poverty line edged up a tenth of a point to 10.7 percent, he said.

Mesa County sales tax collections, a measure of retail activity, were up about three-tenths of a percent through November of 2023 compared to the same span in 2022, Perry said

According to a separate report from Mesa County for the entirety of 2023, sales tax collections totaled nearly $49.2 million. That was up nine-tenths of a percent from 2022.

Higher interest rates on mortgages and lower residential inventories have curbed real estate activity, Perry said.

A total of 3,613 real estate transactions worth a collective $1.56 billion were reported in Mesa County in 2023. Compared to 2022, transactions declined 23.5 percent and dollar volume dropped 24.9 percent. Low inventories kept home prices stable, however. The median prices of homes sold in 2023 was $389,000, up 1 percent from 2022.

New home construction lagged, he said. A total of 436 building permits for single-family homes were issued in Mesa County in 2023, down 39.5 percent from 2022.

Perry also monitors a number of national economic indicators, among them inflation and interest rates.

For December, inflation came in 3.4 percent, a gain driven by a 6.2 percent increase in the cost of shelter. The cost of medical services also increased, he said.

Still, inflation moderated faster than what Perry said he initially expected and should decrease further in 2024.

Interest rates should decrease as well, he said, as the Federal Reserve likely achieves a so-called soft landing in curbing inflation without triggering a recession.

Quarterly economic updates for Mesa County and neighboring Western Slope counties are available online from Colorado Mesa University at the website at https://www.coloradomesa.edu/business/economic-newsletter.html.