Phil Castle, The Business Times

The monthly unemployment rate spiked again in January in Mesa County. But what’s typically a seasonal increase to the highest level of the year is expected to precede the downward trend that usually follows.

Lindsay Bullock, manager of the Mesa County Workforce Center in Grand Junction, said labor demand remains strong and the local economy becomes more diversified and resilient.

The seasonally unadjusted unemployment jumped a point between December and January to 4.5 percent, according to the latest estimates from the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment.  The rate stood at 3.9 percent in January 2023.

January numbers aren’t released until March because of annual revisions to information for the previous year. February estimates are scheduled for release March 22.

“It stuck pretty much to the trend over the last couple of years,” Bullock said of the January increase. “It was a bigger jump, but not hugely different.”

Bullock said the unemployment rate typically spikes to its highest level of the year in January following layoffs after the holidays and other seasonal factors. But jobless rates usually trend downward in the months that follow.

Between December and January, Mesa County payrolls decreased 973 to 72,482. The number of people counted among those unsuccessfully looking for work increased 686 to 3,384. The labor force, which includes the employed and unemployed, edged down 287 to 75,866.

Over the past year, payrolls decreased 469 as the ranks of the unemployed increased 458. The labor force edged down 11.

Bullock said the increasing number of job orders posted at the Mesa County Workforce Center reflects continued labor demand. For January, 966 orders for a total of 1,584 openings were posted. For the same month a year ago, 675 orders for 1,442 openings were posted.

Demand remains strongest in the health care and construction sectors, she said. Employers continue to report difficulty finding candidates with skills to fill certain job openings.

Looking ahead, Bullock said she’s encouraged by labor demand as well as what’s become a more diversified and resilient economy. She said she expects unemployment rates to fall to the low 3s in the months ahead.

Seasonally unadjusted unemployment rates also increased in neighboring western Colorado counties in January, up 1.4 points to 4.5 percent in Rio Blanco County, 1.1 points to 4.9 percent in Delta County, up nine-tenths of a point to 4.2 percent in Montrose County and up six-tenths of a point to 3.4 percent in Garfield County.

The statewide seasonally adjusted unemployment edged up a tenth of a point to 3.4 percent in January with increases in both the number of people counted among those unsuccessfully looking for work as well as nonfarm payrolls.

According to the latest results of household surveys, the ranks of the unemployed increased 2,600 to 110,200 as overall employment contracted 5,100 to nearly 3.2 million.

According to the results of separate business surveys, nonfarm payrolls increased 8,000 between December and January with the biggest gains in the professional and business services and manufacturing sectors. Government payrolls increased 2,400.

Over the past year, nonfarm payrolls grew 57,900. Employment increased 15,300 in educational and health services, 10,600 in professional and business services and 9,600 in leisure and hospitality. Those gains offset losses of 2,000 jobs in the information sector, 1,000 in manufacturing and 900 in manufacturing. Employment declined 3,800 in the trade, transportation and utilities sector.

The average workweek for employees on private, nonfarm payrolls shortened 1.1 hours to 32.4 hours. Average hourly earnings increased $1.33 to $37.23, a 3.7 percent increase.