Phil Castle, The Business Times

A growing population and higher standards of living bode well for Mesa County. But rising housing prices pose challenges, according to a professor who tracks economic indicators in western Colorado.

Nathan Perry, an associate professor of economics at Colorado Mesa University in Grand Junction, shared his latest information during a breakfast keynote presentation at the Western Colorado Economic Summit.

The Mesa County population is projected to continue to grow in the coming decades, Perry said, from what was nearly 156,000 in 2020 to 174,827 in 2030 and nearly 200,000 in 2040.

Migration from the Front Range of Colorado and other areas of the United States is expected to drive that growth, he said. Mesa County has become a popular place for retirees, whose steady incomes stabilize the economy.

Meanwhile, the median household income in Mesa County continues to trend upward — to $69,000 in 2022. Poverty rates continue to decline, Perry said. “We’ve seen really big progress on standard of living.”

The Mesa County labor market remains tight, he said, but employment growth has slowed.

According to the latest estimates from the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, Mesa County payrolls decreased 763 over the past year as the number of people counted among those unsuccessfully looking for work increased 657. The seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate stood at 4.3 percent in March.

Given the regional health care hub that’s developed in Mesa County, Perry said it’s not surprising the health care sector has become the largest employer with the biggest job gains. Other top sectors include retail trades and construction.

The outlook is less encouraging for the Mesa County real estate market, he said. “It’s bad. Next slide.”

Higher interest rates on mortgages combined with higher prices have made homes less affordable, he said.

Housing inventories remain low in part because homeowners with mortgages with comparatively lower interest rates are reluctant to sell for fear they’ll have to pay higher interest rates on new mortgages.

While Mesa County home prices remain lower than those in Denver, they’re higher than in other areas of the United States, he said. That affects the number of people relocating to Mesa County.

Perry said he’s concerned that even if mortgage interest rates retreat, strong demand for homes and low inventories will push prices higher.

As for the national economy, Perry said growth has been “pretty solid.” But persistent inflation and signs of consumer weakness indicate slowing, although not to a recessionary level. “I’m not concerned about recession yet.”