It’s not exactly rocket science. If you want to know what business leaders and owners think about the economy, just ask them. Based on what they’re seeing in running their operations, their opinions could contradict some of the other indicators tracking business conditions.

To a degree, that’s the situation with the latest results of the Leeds Business Confidence Index, which tracks the expectations of business leaders across Colorado and industry sectors. Despite economic indicators signaling continued growth, business leaders remain wary heading into the third quarter.

The index dropped 3.1 points between the second and third quarters to 50.6, barely above the level that reflects more positive than negative responses to the survey upon which the index is based. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the reading was slightly lower at 49.9.

Of the business leaders who responded to the third quarter survey and provided explanations, 26 percent attributed their expectations to higher interest rates, 21 percent blamed uncertainty over the upcoming election and 17 percent cited their more general sentiments.

According to other indicators, the Colorado economy continues to grow. Gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services produced in the state, grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.3 percent during the first quarter. Nonfarm payrolls increased 55,400 between May 2023 and May 2024. Inflation for the Denver, Aurora and Lakewood area dropped below 3 percent in May.

Here in Mesa County, the seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate rose a half point between April and May to 4.1 percent as payrolls decreased and the number of people counted among those unsuccessfully looking for work increased.

Real estate sales, yet another important economic indicator, continue to lag behind last year. For June, transactions were down 25.1 percent and dollar volume fell 24.4 percent compared to the same month last year. Higher interest rates on mortgages continue to affect the market. So does uncertainty over those rates, inflation and the impending election.

On a national level, small business owners remain more pessimistic than optimistic, according to an index based on monthly surveys of members of the National Federation of Independent Business.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index climbed to highest level of the year in June. But at 91.5, the index remained well below its 50-year average of 98 for a 30th consecutive month.

Asked to identify their single most important problem, 21 percent of NFIB members who responded to the June survey cited inflation, 19 percent the quality of labor and 11 percent the cost of labor.

There’s also some good news, though. MarketBeat conducted an online survey of 3,000 business executives to identify the cities they considered hidden gems for business startups. Grand Junction ranked 12th.