Phil Castle, The Business Times

Mesa County is positioned for growth in 2023, according to the latest results of an annual business and economic forecast for the year ahead.

The mostly upbeat outlook is based in part on a more diversified economy with expected gains in the energy, manufacturing and tourism sectors. Economic indicators also point to improving conditions.

That’s not to mention the attraction of comparatively affordable housing and a high quality of life, says Rich Wobbekind, senior economist at the Leeds School of Business at the University of Colorado at Boulder. “It’s a place people would like to live.”

Wobbekind and Brian Lewandowski, executive director of the business research division of the Leeds School of Business, outlined the forecasts for Mesa County and Colorado in a Zoom interview with the Business Times.

Wobbekind also is scheduled to present the findings at a presentation hosted by the Grand Junction Area Chamber of Commerce. The economic outlook luncheon is set for noon to 1:30 p.m. Dec. 12 at the Mesa County Workforce Center located at 512 29 1/2 Road. Admission is $25 for chamber members, $30 for others. For reservations or information, call 242-3214 or visit http://gjchamber.org.

The division compiles the Colorado Business Economic Outlook with sections for various industry sectors and geographic regions. Business, industry and government officials contribute to the report.

The section about Mesa County included contributions from Steve Jozefcyzk, deputy director of the Grand Junction Economic Partnership, and Nathan Perry, an economics professor at Colorado Mesa University. The section also included information from Bray & Co. Real Estate, the Grand Junction Regional Airport, Mesa County Workforce Center and Visit Grand Junction.

“We are seeing signs of our community continuing to thrive,” the forecast states. “The diversification of our business industries steadily grows, making Mesa County more resilient during times of nationwide downturn. Strong economic indicators continue to point toward the positive positioning of Mesa County for growth in 2023.”

Wobbekind and Lewandowski say several trends bode well for Mesa County, including higher natural gas prices and projected increases in tourism. Moreover, the Mesa County population is expected to continue to grow as births outpace deaths and more people move to the county. That helps fill the labor pool, Lewandowski says.

As of October, the latest month for which estimates are available, the seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate stood at
3.8 percent. That was up four-tenths of a point from September, but down seven-tenths
of a point from October 2021.

Over the past year, Mesa County payrolls grew 1,378 — or 1.8 percent — to 75,947. The overall labor force, which includes the employed and unemployed, increased 801 to 78,921.

Mesa County was among the first counties in Colorado to recover the jobs lost in early 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions.

The pandemic accelerated the trend of remote employers who relocated to Grand Junction, but work for companies located elsewhere.

According to an economic update from CMU, average annual wages rose 4.4 percent to $50,128 in 2022 compared to 2021.

New filings for Mesa County businesses are up 3.9 percent over last year.

In 2021, six additional companies in Mesa County were approved for the Rural Jump-Start program offering tax credits for creating new jobs. Two more companies could be approved by the end of 2022.

The Grand Junction Economic Partnership worked with four companies that relocated to Mesa County in 2022 and expects to announce five additional relocations.

West Star Aviation, one of the largest private sector employers in Mesa County, expects to expand its operations at the Grand Junction Regional Airport with the construction of a 40,000-square-foot hangar and another 35,000 square foot shop and office space. The company plans to hire 80 employees now and another 100 over the next few years.

Health care, the largest industry sector  in Mesa County in terms of employment, continues to expand as well. Construction is under way on a 126,000-square-foot cancer center and medical office building at Community Hospital in Grand Junction as well as a health care clinic in Palisade.

In the energy sector, drilling rig counts have increased along with natural gas prices. But employment in oil and natural gas production declined from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2022.

Sales tax collections, an indicator of retail activity, continue to trend upward.

The City of Grand Junction reported collecting almost $53.7 million in sales taxes through the first 10 months of 2022. That’s an increase of more than $5 million and 10.4 percent over the same span in 2021. Mesa County collected $40.7 million in sales taxes through the first 10 months of 2022, an increase of almost $4 million and 10.8 percent over the same span in 2021.

Lodging tax collections, a measure of hotel and motel stays, also have increased. The City of Grand Junction reported collecting nearly $4 million through the first 10 months of 2022, a 27 percent increase over the same span in 2021. Lodging tax collections for 2023 are projected to increase 9 percent above 2022.

The number of passengers boarding commercial flights at the Grand Junction Regional Airport has decreased in 2022 compared to a busy 2021 with the loss of a route between Grand Junction and Salt Lake City.

Higher mortgage interest rates and home prices have slowed the real estate market in Mesa County.

Through 11 months of 2022, 4,451 real estate transactions worth a total of more than $1.9 billion were reported. Compared to the same span in 2021, transactions decreased 21 percent and dollar volume fell 7.9 percent.

Home prices continue to rise, however. The median price of homes sold through 11 months of 2022 increased 16.7 percent to $385,000 compared to the same span in 2021.

Although housing prices have increased in Mesa County, Wobbekind says they remain below other areas of Colorado. That’s bolstered migration into the county, especially from the Front Range. The combination of big city amenities, outdoor recreational opportunities and high quality of life makes Mesa County an affordable and attractive place to live, he says.