The latest GlobeSt analysis on Denver’s retail sector paints a striking picture: Leasing demand is slowing sharply even as rents hover near five-year highs. For Western Colorado observers, this invites the question: How does Grand Junction’s retail landscape compare?

The Denver metro retail market remains one of the tightest in the country, with vacancy around 4.3 percent, according to Colliers and Corken + Company. Prime corridors such as Cherry Creek and LoDo command rents in the $30 to $45 per-square-foot range. Yet GlobeSt’s October 2025 analysis notes that leasing velocity has fallen, absorption turned negative in several submarkets, and new store openings are not keeping pace with closures.

In short, Denver’s landlords are holding firm on pricing, but tenants are showing caution. Higher borrowing costs, construction expenses and consumer pullback are squeezing expansions. The result is a market where rents look strong on paper, but deal activity has cooled.

Grand Junction: Stable, Affordable, Adapting

Drive four hours west, and the picture changes dramatically. In Grand Junction and Mesa County, the retail environment is steady but soft, characterized by affordable space, modest demand growth and creative reuse of older centers.

According to the City of Grand Junction’s commercial market summary (ecode360.com), local retail lease rates average $15 to $24 per square foot, far below Denver levels. Vacancy hovers between 10 and 20 percent, concentrated along the North Avenue corridor and the Downtown area.

Bray Commercial’s Q2 2025 Market Report notes that overall leasing inventory in Mesa County rose about 16 percent year-over-year, signaling more options for tenants and competitive conditions for landlords. Despite that, transaction volume stayed healthy, and several major revitalization projects, such as the Valley Plaza renovation, underscore confidence in the market’s long-term potential.

Comparing the Two Markets

Here is a comparison of metrics for Denver metro and Grand Junction/Mesa County.

Retail Vacancy: Denver metro – approximately 4 percent (tight); Grand Junction/Mesa County – 10-20 percent (ample space).

Average Rent: Denver metro – $27 to $46 per square foot; Grand Junction – $15 to $24 per square foot.

Leasing Trend: Denver metro – declining demand, slower absorption; Grand Junction/Mesa County – increasing inventory, steady activity.

Market Drivers: Denver metro – urban density, high costs, limited new supply; Grand Junction/Mesa County – population growth, affordability, adaptive reuse.

Risk Factors: Denver metro – tenant resistance to high rents; Grand Junction/Mesa County – aging stock, slower turnover.

Opportunities: Denver metro – prime space holds premium value; Grand Junction/Mesa County – redevelopment and value-add investments.

What’s Behind the Differences?

1. Market Scale and Maturity: Denver’s size and national-brand presence magnify economic shifts when retailers pause expansion, vacancies quickly ripple through. Grand Junction’s smaller, service-oriented tenant base (restaurants, healthcare, local shops) creates a slower but steadier cycle.
2. Cost of Entry: High construction and land costs in Denver keep new supply limited, supporting rent levels even as demand eases. In contrast, Grand Junction’s affordability attracts small businesses and regional operators seeking lower overhead and community visibility.
3. Adaptive Reuse Momentum: Where Denver relies on infill and mixed-use vertical projects, Western Colorado’s retail growth often comes from repurposing: converting older big-box stores into medical, service or recreational uses. Bray Commercial has highlighted several such transitions, part of a broader “reimagine retail” movement transforming under-performing corridors into new community anchors.
4. Consumer Behavior: Front Range consumers skew toward experiential retail: entertainment; dining; and boutique concepts. Mesa County retail spending remains needs-based and local, buoyed by modest population and tourism growth.

Recent Economic Signals

• Sales-tax revenue in Mesa County was up 1 percent year-over-year through mid-2025, per the Colorado Mesa University economic newsletter.
• Construction and renovation activity in existing Grand Junction centers (e.g., Valley Plaza, Rimrock Marketplace refreshes) continues despite higher financing costs.
• No significant new, ground-up, retail developments have broken ground since 2022, reflecting a focus on stabilization and reuse rather than expansion.

Together, these trends suggest a measured, sustainable retail cycle as a contrast to Denver’s more volatile pattern.

What It Means for Western Colorado Owners & Investors

For landlords, the message is encouraging. While Grand Junction’s vacancy rates appear high, quality space still leases and at stable, realistic rents. The competitive advantage lies in upgrading properties, improving signage and attracting essential-service or lifestyle tenants that serve local demand.

For investors, cap rates in Mesa County remain favorable relative to Denver, offering entry points for long-term hold strategies. With construction costs still high, purchasing and repositioning existing assets may deliver stronger returns than building new.

For tenants, the environment provides choice and flexibility. Compared with Denver’s premium rents and compressed margins, Grand Junction offers affordable expansion opportunities in a community with steady population growth.

Outlook

The next several quarters will likely reinforce this divergence. As Denver’s high rents meet slowing absorption, we could see pricing adjustments or incentives emerge in select submarkets. Meanwhile, Grand Junction’s moderate pace positions it for gradual, sustainable improvement, particularly if revitalization projects continue and local consumer spending holds firm.

Both markets underscore the same truth: Retail real estate today rewards quality, creativity and community connection. In Denver, that means curating the right tenant mix in premium corridors. In Grand Junction, it means investing in spaces that reflect how Western Colorado shops, works, and gathers.

Lori Long is a commercial broker for Bray Commercial Real Estate.