Phil Castle, The Business Times

When Nathan Perry examines the statistical picture of the Mesa County economy, he sees slowing labor and real estate markets as well as what could be decreased consumer spending.

While Mesa County was once isolated from the trends affecting the United States economy, that’s no longer the case. “The Mesa County story is he same as the national story,” says Perry, an economics professor at Colorado Mesa University who prepares a quarterly economic update for Mesa County.

Perry also sees what he considers some encouraging signs, among them continued migration that’s expected to bolster the county population, an increase in personal income and a decrease in poverty. Single-family building permits have rebounded after nearly two years of declines.

Looking ahead, Perry says the probability of a so-called soft economic landing exceeds that of a mild recession, but also the likelihood more robust economic conditions will soon return.

Perry issued his latest Mesa County economic update in September. He says the biggest takeaway is a slowdown in the labor market.

Employment estimates fell from 74,145 in June 2023 to 72,993 in June 2024, he says. That’s a bigger decline than what occurred in other Western Slope counties.

For August 2024, the latest month for which estimates are available, the seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate in Mesa County stood at 4.4 percent. That’s a drop of two-tenths of a point from July that ended a string of three straight months of increases.

For Grand Junction, the seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate slipped a tenth of a point between July and August to 4.7 percent.

The statewide seasonally adjusted jobless rate edged up a tenth of a point to 4 percent, the first time the state rate has reached that level since January 2022.

However, quarterly numbers for employment and wages for the first quarter of 2024 in Mesa County reflected job and wage gains compared to the first quarter of 2023, with the biggest job gains in the health care sector. Payrolls also increased in public administration, transportation and warehousing and professional and technical services.

Perry attributes slowing job growth to a number of factors, including uncertainty over economic and business conditions, slowing consumer spending and lower natural gas prices that have affected exploration and production activity.

A total of 2,584 new business filings with the Colorado Secretary of State’s Office came from Mesa County in 2023. That’s up from 2,581 in 2022. New business filings constitute a leading indicator of subsequent job growth.

Sales tax collections, a measure of retail activity increased in Mesa County and Grand Junction. Through July of 2024, collections increased 2.44 percent in Mesa County and 9.2 percent in Grand Junction. For August, Mesa County sales tax collections were up 1.3 percent over the same month a year ago.

According to the Colorado State Demography Office, the Mesa County population is projected to continue to increase. A population of 155,993 in 2020 is expected to reach 162,833 in 2025 and 174,827 in 2030.

Perry says migration to the county will drive those gains more than changes in birth and death rates.

Higher interest rates on mortgages have affected real estate sales, Perry says, in making financing more expensive for homebuyers. Owners otherwise interested in selling are more reluctant to do so for fear of trading existing mortgages with comparatively lower rates for new mortgages with higher rates.

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee reduced a key short-term interest rate by a half point, which should accelerate real estate activity, Perry says.

For August, 370 real estate transactions worth a total of $163 million were reported in Mesa County. Compared to the same month a year ago, transactions increased 4.5 percent and dollar volume decreased 4.6 percent. Through the first eight months of 2024, 2,530 transactions worth a total of more than $1.2 billion were reported. Compared to the same span in 2023, transactions decreased 2.3 percent and dollar volume rose 4.5 percent.

Home prices continue to increase, Perry says, with the median sales price rising  almost 5.7 percent to $428,317 from the second quarter of 2023 to the second quarter of 2022.

The median price of homes sold in August was lower at $387,000. The median price of homes sold through the first eight months of 2024 was $396,000.

Perry says he was encouraged building permits for the construction of single-family homes have started to increase in Mesa County after nearly two years of declines. Total building permits remain at a historically high level, he says, but reflect the construction of multi-family housing.

Several standard of living measures have increased, Perry says, although the information lags.

The median household income in Mesa County rose from $63,531 in 2021 to $69,578 in 2022. Personal per capita income, a calculation of all personal income in the county divided by the population, rose from $53,192 in 2021 to $54,654 in 2022.

The proportion of the Mesa County population below the poverty level edged up a tenth of a point between 2021 to 2022, but remained at 10.7 percent.

Perry also included in his latest economic update an evaluation of industrial diversification in Mesa County.

According to one index, the industrial composition of Mesa County has moved closer to that of Colorado as the health care sector has grown and oil and natural gas exploration and production has declined. A separate index reflects an increase in the concentration in health care jobs.

Looking ahead, Perry estimates the probability of a so-called soft landing — a slowdown in economic growth resulting from efforts to curb inflation, but without a recession — at about 50 percent. He pegs the likelihood of a mild recession at 35 percent, while there’s a 15 percent chance the United States will enjoy more robust economic conditions.

Uncertainty before and after the presidential election in November could cause some volatility, but Perry says he doesn’t expect a severe recession.