Phil Castle, The Business Times

Diane Schwenke preaches what she believes to be two equally important holiday messages: shop local to support Grand Valley businesses and stay safe in the midst of a pandemic.

Schwenke hopes the messages remain more complementary than contrary because the outcome of the holiday shopping season — and for some businesses, continued operations — could depend on it.

“I think we need every single business to come through this,” says Schwenke, president and chief executive officer of the Grand Junction Area Chamber of Commerce.

The holiday shopping season, including Black Friday and Small Business Saturday, coincides with an increase in positive COVID-19 cases and tighter restrictions in Mesa County. Moreover, a larger proportion of consumers has turned to online shopping for what’s perceived as not only convenience, but also safety.

“There’s a lot stacked against us,” Schwenke says.

Still, businesses participating in a variance protection program that follow public health guidelines operate under less stringent conditions. Retailers, restaurants and other businesses have responded in other ways by offering curbside and takeaway services and even delivery. Chambers of commerce and other business organizations offer campaigns, promotions and activities to help.

Brandon Stam, executive director of the Downtown Development Authority, says it’s enough to make him more hopeful about the holiday shopping season. “I’m cautiously optimistic  the people are going to still come downtown.”

One leading indicator of holiday shopping expectations also offers encouragement.

Curtis Englehart, director of the Mesa County Workforce Center in Grand Junction, says there was an increase in seasonal hiring for retailers.

The holidays near even as the number of positive COVID-19 cases increases in Mesa County.

As of Nov. 23, 4,939 positive cases of COVID-19 had been reported in Mesa County — 2,364 over the prior two weeks. Twenty-two Mesa County residents were hospitalized as of that date, and 38 deaths have been attributed to COVID-19 in the county since the onset of the pandemic. Out of those who’ve tested positive, 2,009 have recovered and 741 reported no symptoms.

Testing also has increased with 83,799 tests administered in the county. Over the two weeks ending Nov. 23, 5.39 percent of tests were positive.

A week before Black Friday and the traditional start to the holiday shopping season, Mesa County Public Health announced the move from the orange, high-risk level of the pandemic response to the red, severe-risk level.

With the change came more stringent restrictions on the number of customers businesses and restaurants may allow in at a given time as well as limits on indoor gatherings and events.

Businesses participating in a variance protection program that implement public health recommendations to avoid the spread of COVID-19 operate under less stringent restrictions.

Nationally, holiday sales during November and December are expected to rise between 3.6 percent and 5.2 percent over 2019, the National Retail Federation forecast.

It remains to be seen, however, whether consumers will shop online or in local businesses.

According to the results of one holiday shopping consumer study, 69 percent of those who responded said they planned to do most of their shopping online because of the pandemic. More than half said they’ll never shop in person again for the holidays.

The results of another survey found, though, that 74 percent of those who responded said they’d make an effort to shop t local businesses during the holidays, but were evenly split over whether they feel safe doing so.

Grand Valley businesses offering online ordering and deliver could fare better, Schwenke says.

The Grand Junction Area Chamber of Commerce offers what’s billed as a holiday tool kit for the holidays with a list on its website of businesses offering online ordering, curbside pickup, delivery and gift cards. The listing is available to businesses for free regardless of whether or not they’re chamber members, Schwenke says.

Without the Parade of Lights and other big events that bring people to downtown Grand Junction, Stam says businesses there will do more to engage customers.

Downtown Grand Junction will help with a campaign called the 12 Days of Christmas that will include promotions and prizes, Stam says. That’s not to mention efforts on Small Business Saturday on the Saturday after Thanksgiving.

Stam says he remains concerned, though, about local businesses not only during the holidays, but also during the lull that follows the holidays.

Schwenke agrees. “Now, more than ever, it’s important to shop locally.”