Phil Castle, The Business Times

The monthly unemployment rate in Mesa County has edged up as colder weather slows activity in some industry sectors.

But 2019 will end as one of the best years on record for the local labor market, said Curtis Englehart, director of the Mesa County Workforce Center in Grand Junction. “2019 has really shaped up to be a good year, a positive year for Mesa County.”

The outlook for 2020, Englehart said, is for more of the same.

The seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate edged up a tenth of a point to 2.9 percent in November in Mesa County, according to the latest estimates from the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment.

The monthly jobless rate tends to tick up at the end of the year as activity slows in construction and other sectors affected by weather, Englehart said.

At the same time, though, the latest rate is up only four-tenths of a point from 2.5 percent in September, the lowest level in Mesa County for county level statistics going back to 1990. At this time last year, the jobless rate stood at 4.2 percent.

For November 2019, Mesa County payrolls decreased 480 to 75,693. The number of people counted among those unsuccessfully looking for work increased 127 to 2,300. The labor force, which includes the employed and unemployed, shrank 353 to 77,993.

Over the past year, however, payrolls have increased 1,312 or nearly 1.8 percent. The ranks of the unemployed have decreased 953. The labor force has grown 359.

The combination of a lower unemployment rate and bigger labor force constitutes an encouraging trend, Englehart said, especially when considered over a longer term.

The 499 job orders posted at the Mesa County in November was down almost 12.8 percent from the same month last year. But the number of job openings involved almost doubled to 1,903, Englehart said. One job order often involves multiple openings. Labor demand remains spread out among industry sectors and occupations, including those in construction, health care, office administration and transportation.

The Mesa County labor market remains “really tight,”  Englehart said. But a growing labor force has kept the market from becoming even tighter.  Since 2017, the labor force has grown more than 8,000.

While some people have re-entered the labor market, Englehart said more have relocated to Mesa County — especially from the Front Range of Colorado.

Employers wondering where the job seekers are have to realize most of them are working, Englehart said. But they’re still actively looking for different jobs or careers. That makes it incumbent on employers to demonstrate why employees should work instead for them, whether that’s differences in compensation or company culture.

Looking ahead, Englehart said he expects an increase in the monthly unemployment rate in January, a jump that occurs every year. But the change should be more of a slight increase than a huge bump, he said. Afterwards, the jobless rate should trend back down. “I see 2020 being another good year for Mesa County.”

For November, seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate also edged up in neighboring Western Colorado counties: up two-tenths of a point to 2.5 percent in Garfield County and 2.7 percent in Delta County and up three-tenths of a point to 2.6 percent in Montrose County and 3.4 percent in Rio Blanco County.

The statewide seasonally adjusted jobless rate held steady at 2.6 percent, tied for the lowest rate for state-level statistics going back to 1976. Nonfarm payrolls increased 4,100 between October and November.

Over the past year, the state jobless rate has dropped a point. Nonfarm payrolls have increased 57,100 with the biggest gains in professional and business services, education and health services and financial activities.

The average workweek for employees on private, nonfarm payrolls increased two-tenths of an hour to 33.2 hours over the past year. Average hourly earnings rose 99 cents to $30.55.