It’s only natural at the beginning of a year to wonder what lies ahead, what the next trip around the sun will bring. That takes many forms — from the dread of imminent disaster to the eager anticipation of newfound success and everything on the sliding scale in between.

Depending on circumstance and mood, I’m as adept at making mountains out of molehills as I am dismissing the prospect of grim news with Pollyanna naivety.

That’s why I have so much respect for the business owners and managers who have to peer into the new year ahead to set realistic expectations for sales and profits as well as staffing, inventories and capital investments. And they have to do so as if their ventures depend on it. Because they often do.

Their task is made all the more difficult because of the uncertainty that seems to shroud nearly everything. In fact, about the only certainty these days is uncertainty. When will inflation — along with the higher interest rates imposed to curb it — abate? What’s in store for the labor market? And will the economy slip into recession in 2023 or not?

As the editor of a business journal, I wish I could offer some guidance as well as some answers. Unfortunately, I can only call only call ’em as I see ’em. Or rather, report the information I receive. And that information has been uncertain, if not paradoxical. Consider what’s reported elsewhere in this very issue:

n The latest results of a quarterly survey of Colorado business leaders reflects more pessimism than confidence heading into the first quarter of 2023. While there was slight improvement in the outlook for the state and national economies, expectations for capital expenditures, hiring, sales and profits all decreased.

n A measure of optimism among small business owners was no more encouraging, declining in December on less upbeat expectations for the economy, sales and earnings.

n An index forecasting economic conditions in the United States decreased for a ninth consecutive month, signaling a recession that could start early this year.

n Real estate activity declined on a year-over-year basis in Mesa County for December and 2022 as a combination of higher interest rates and prices curtailed sales.

On the other hand — as economists like to say — a measure of consumer confidence rebounded to its highest level in eight months on more upbeat assessments of business and labor conditions. By the way, consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity.

And Colorado continues to fare better than other areas of the United States, ranking among the top states for growth in personal income and gross domestic product. While job growth is expected to slow in 2023, Colorado payrolls are still forecast to increase — 57,000, in fact.

It’s been my experience problems are never quite as bad as feared and success sometimes occurs when it’s least expected. What I know for certain is my hope the year ahead is a good one for businesses, readers and advertisers.

Phil Castle is editor of the Business Times. Reach him at 424-5133 or phil@thebusinesstimes.com.