Phil Castle, The Business Times

Mesa County is poised to continue on what’s described as a controlled growth trajectory in 2024 as a more diversified economy ensures resilience and sustainability.

More businesses and investments in commercial real estate buoy the outlook, as do further opportunities  for development. Tourism and outdoor recreation continue to drive economic growth even as the tech industry gains recognition. Home sales have slowed as a result of higher interest rates on mortgages, but construction of multi-family housing has accelerated.

“As Mesa County continues a controlled growth trajectory, the industry base continues to diversify, which is essential for ensuring economic resilience and sustainability,” according to the summary for Mesa County in the latest Colorado Business Economic Outlook report.

The research division of the Leeds School of Business at the University of Colorado at Boulder compiles the annual report with sections for geographic regions and industry sectors. Business, industry and government officials contribute to the report.

The section about Mesa County included contributions from Steve Jozefcyzk, deputy director of the Grand Junction Economic Partnership, and Nathan Perry, an economics professor at Colorado Mesa University. The section also included information from Bray & Co. Real Estate, the Grand Junction Regional Airport, Mesa County Workforce Center and Visit Grand Junction.

Statewide, employment is expected to increase 41,900 in 2024, a 1.4 percent gain over 2023. Gains are forecast for seven industry sectors, with losses in four sectors. Inflation, high interest rates, labor shortages and less consumer spending all could pose challenges.

In Mesa County, the labor market remains strong overall, but has lagged behind national gains, the outlook report stated. The seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate was unchanged in October at 3.2 percent, but was lower at 2.9 percent a year ago.

Over the past year, Mesa County payrolls increased 237 — up 0.31 percent — to  75,345. The overall labor force, which includes the employed and unemployed, grew 481 to 77,839.

According to a third quarter economic update for Mesa County prepared by Perry at CMU, average annual wages rose 10.2 percent to $55,484.

Sales tax collections, one measure of retail activity, lagged in October but continued to outpace collections in 2022. Mesa County collected more than $4.2 million in sales taxes in October, a 1.4 percent drop compared to the same month last year. Through the first 10 months of 2023, the county collected nearly $41 million. That’s an increase of seven-tenths of a percent over the same span in 2022.

Higher interest rates on mortgages slowed real estate activity in Mesa County. Through 11 months  of 2023, 3,369 real estate transactions worth a total of $1.45 billion were reported. Compared to the same span in 2022, transactions fell 24.3 percent and dollar volume declined 25.1 percent.

While new home starts lagged, construction of multifamily housing increased. That includes 257-unit and 78-unit apartment complexes.

Health care continues to drive the Mesa County economy as the largest industry sector. As of the first quarter of 2023, health care accounted for 18 percent of employment. Of the top 10 employers in the county, five are in the health care industry. In 2021, health care and social assistance accounted for 15.5 percent of gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services produced in the county. That was a 4.8 percent increase over the annual average change over the past 10 years.

Tourism and outdoor recreation remain important economic drivers as well, the summary states.

Lodging tax collections, a measure of hotel and motel stays, increased 7.8 percent in 2022 over 2021. Hotel occupancy rates in Grand Junction in January, February and March 2022 reached the highest levels ever for those three months.

After its busiest year ever for commercial traffic in 2021, enplanements subsequently declined at the Grand Junction Regional Airport after Delta discontinued flights between Grand Junction and Salt Lake City because of pilot shortages. Breeze Airways announced in November it expects to launch three routes in 2024 that will offer service between Grand Junction and Orange County-Santa Ana and San Francisco in California as well as Provo, Utah.

Outdoor recreation contributes more than $484 million a year to the Mesa County economy and accounts for nearly 10,000 jobs, according to the results of a study conducted by researchers at Colorado Mesa University in 2022.

Employment in aviation, aerospace and parts manufacturing is expected to increase 3.5 percent in 2023 in part as West Star Aviation further expands its maintenance, repair and overhaul operations at the Grand Junction Regional Airport.

The technology and software industry also is expected to continue to grow and gain recreation.

The energy sector has declined in Mesa County, though, with a 6.3 percent drop in the number of energy employees and 11.4 percent drop in GDP from the sector over the past decade.

Looking ahead, the summary forecasts continued business growth and investments in commercial real estate.

As of May 2023, new business filings from Mesa County were up 13.4 percent compared to the same month a year ago. Through the first 11 months of 2023, 100 real estate transactions worth more than $1 million each accounted for $214 million in total dollar volume.

The summary cites ongoing efforts in downtown Grand Junction as well as the Riverfront at Las Colonias development and Dos Rios project.

“These strong economic indicators position Mesa County well for continued growth in 2024,” the summary states.