Colorado could lose 128,500 jobs in 2020 in the wake of a pandemic that’s caused an unprecedented downturn, according to a midyear economic update compiled at the University of Colorado at Boulder.

Mesa County has fared better than other metropolitans areas in the state, however, with a proportionally smaller year-over-year employment decline and lower jobless rate. Moreover, Mesa County also could benefit from increased interest among people and businesses to relocate to Colorado.

The midyear update prepared by the research division of the Leeds School of Business at CU revised downward what was forecast in December as the addition of 40,100 jobs in Colorado in 2020.

The coronavirus pandemic and related closures and restrictions changed the outlook for nearly every industry sector, said Richard Wobbekind, senior economist and faculty director of the Leeds School of Business. “We have no context, nationally or in Colorado, in which to assess this magnitude of economic devastation,” Wobbekind said. “We can try and compare it to the Great Recession, but the numbers are orders of magnitude different. We never shut down the economy before.”

Brian Lewandowski, executive director of the research division, said the news isn’t entirely bad. “While the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic have set many records, we have also been surprised by the rebound in some areas of the economy.”

According to the update, labor conditions in Colorado had stagnated at the beginning of the year. But the onset of the coronavirus pandemic and related closures and restrictions led to a total loss of 342,000 jobs in March and April. The statewide seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose nearly 10 points from 2.5 percent in February to 12.2 percent in April.

Nonfarm payrolls rebounded with a combined gain of 126,000 jobs in May and June. But total employment remained 7.7 percent below January and 6.6 percent below June 2019.

The effects of the pandemic and downturn have varied across Colorado.

As of June, Grand Junction had experienced the lowest year-over-year employment decline among metro areas at 2.2 percent. According to estimates compiled by the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, payrolls declined 2,008.

Boulder had the second lowest decline at 4.1 percent, followed by Pueblo at 4.4 percent and Colorado Springs at 4.7 percent. The Denver, Aurora and Lakewood area posted the largest decline at 6.7 percent.

The seasonally unadjusted  jobless rate stood at 10 percent in Mesa County in June.

Fort Collins posted the lowest rate at 9.2 percent, followed by Boulder at 9.5 percent and Greeley at 10.1 percent. The Denver, Aurora and Lakewood area posted the highest rate at 11 percent.

While many sectors of the Colorado economy have improved since March and April, they’re expected to finish the year with job losses.

The leisure and hospitality sector is projected to account for nearly 60 percent of job losses in Colorado in 2020 with a decline of 76,700.

Colorado counties with ski resorts and higher concentrations of leisure and hospitality workers were especially hard hit when the pandemic forced ski resorts to close. National parks also were closed for a time. As of June, passenger traffic at Denver International Airport was down nearly 73 percent from a year ago.

The trade, transportation and utilities sector — which includes retail outlets as well as airlines — is expected to lose 13,000 jobs in 2020. Retail employment rebounded in May and June following pandemic-related closures and restrictions. But payrolls still remained 4.8 percent lower than a year ago.

Education and health services is projected to lose 10,100 jobs in 2020, although the sector could experience a V-shaped recovery as elective health care services rebound.

Government payrolls are expected to decline 9,100 as municipalities and other local government entities face budget cuts stemming from decreased tax revenues.

The natural resources and mining sector is expected to lose 4,400 jobs as lower oil and natural gas prices slow exploration and production activity. As of June, the Baker Hughes count for Colorado  fell to four rigs in Weld County and one rig in Garfield County.

Employment is projected to decline 5,100 in construction, 4,700 in other services, 2,900 in financial activities, 1,100 in manufacturing and 1,000 in business and professional services.

While growth in the Colorado population is expected to slow, there’s been increased interest among people and businesses in relocating to areas that have been less affected by the pandemic.

Wobbekind said that bodes well for Mesa County and other rural areas of Colorado.