Leading index forecasts continue growth

An index forecasting economic conditions in the United States continues to signal growth through the remainder of the year, although the pace of that growth could slow.

The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Index rose four-tenths of a percent to 109.4 in April. Separate measures of current and past economic performance also increased.

“April’s increase and continued upward trend in the U.S. LEI suggest solid growth should continue in the second half of 2018. However, the LEI’s six-month growth rate has recently moderated somewhat, suggesting growth is unlikely to strongly accelerate,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, an economist with the Conference Board, a business research and membership association.

With gains in each of the last six months, the Leading Economic Index has increased 3.3 percent over that span. That’s slightly faster than the 3 percent increase in the previous six-month period. Strengths among the leading indicators remain widespread.

Gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services produced in the country, grew at an annual rate of 2.3 percent during the first quarter of 2018 after growing 2.9 percent during the fourth quarter of 2017.

For April, eight of the 10 indicators of the Leading Economic Index advanced, including average weekly manufacturing hours, consumer expectations, interest rate spread, leading credit and new orders indexes and new orders for capital and consumer goods. A decrease in average weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits also bolstered the index. Building permits and stock prices retreated.

The Coincident Economic Index, a measure of current conditions, gained three-tenths of a percent to 103.5. The index has increased 1.1 percent over the past six months.

For April, all four indicators of the index advanced: industrial production, nonfarm payrolls, personal income and sales.

The Lagging Economic Index, a measure of past performance, rose three-tenths of a percent to 104.7. The index has increased a half percent over the past three months.

For April, five of seven components of the index advanced, including the average prime interest rate charged by banks, commercial and industrial financing, consumer credit and inventories. A decrease in the average duration of unemployment also bolstered the index. The cost of labor and services retreated.