Leading index signals continued growth, but at a slowing pace

Ataman Ozyildirim
Ataman Ozyildirim

A monthly index forecasting economic conditions in the United States has edged back up — signaling continued growth, but at what likely will be a slowing pace.

The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose two-tenths of a percent to 111.5 in February. The gain was the first in five months.

A separate measure of current conditions also increased. A measure of past economic performance remained unchanged.

“February’s improvement was driven by accommodative financial conditions and a rebound in stock prices, which more than offset weaknesses in the labor market components,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, director of economic research at the Conference Board, a business research and membership group.

“Despite the latest results, the U.S. LEI’s growth rate has slowed over the past six months, suggesting that while the economy will continue to expand in the near term, its pace of growth could decelerate by year end,” Ozyildirim said.

The LEI has increased a half of a percent over the past six months, slower than the 2.5 percent gain over the six months before that. Gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services produced in the country, rose 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018 after increasing 3.4 percent in the third quarter.

For February, six of 10 indicators of the LEI advanced, including consumer expectations, interest rate spread, a leading credit index, new orders for capital and consumer goods and stock prices. A decrease in average weekly manufacturing hours and increase in initial claims for unemployment benefits pulled down the index. Building permits and a new orders index held steady.

The Coincident Economic Index, a measure of current conditions, rose two-tenths of a percent to 105.9. The index has gained 1.1 percent over the past six months.

For February, all four indicators of the index advanced: industrial production, nonfarm payrolls, personal income and sales.

The Lagging Economic Index, a measure of past performance, remained unchanged at 107. The index has gained 1 percent over the past three months.

For February, two of seven indicators of the index advanced: industrial financing and inventories. Labor costs pulled down the index, as did an increase in the average duration of unemployment. The average prime rate charged by banks, consumer credit the cost of services held steady.