
An index forecasting economic conditions in the United States continues to increase, signaling growth despite rising prices and supply chain issues.
The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Index advanced nine-tenths of a percent to 118.3 in October. Separate measures of current and past performance also increased.
Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at the Conference Board, said the increase in the leading index suggests economic expansion will continue in 2022 and perhaps gain some momentum in the final months of 2021.
“However, rising prices and supply chain bottlenecks pose challenges to growth and are not expected to dissipate until well into 2022,” Ozyildirim said. Still, the Conference Board forecasts annual growth in gross domestic product — the broad measure of goods and services produced in the country — of 5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021 before moderating to 2.6 percent in the first quarter of 2022.
The Leading Economic Index increased 4.6 percent over the past six months, up slightly from the 4.5 percent gain over the six months before that. By comparison, GDP grew at an annual rate 2 percent in the third quarter and 6.7 percent in the second quarter.
For October, eight of 10 indicators of the index advanced, including building permits, interest rate spread, leading credit and new orders indexes, new orders for consumer and capital goods and stock prices. A decrease in average weekly unemployment claims also bolstered the index. Average weekly manufacturing hours and consumer expectations for business conditions retreated.
The Coincident Economic Index rose a half percent to 106.3. The index has increased 1.7 percent over the past six months.
For October, all four indicators advanced: industrial production, nonfarm payrolls, personal income and sales.
The Lagging Economic Index rose four-tenths of a percent to 107.4. The index has increased 1.1 percent over the past three months.
For October, three of seven indicators advanced, including inventories and labor costs. A decline in the average duration of unemployment also pushed up the index. Consumer credit retreated. The average prime rate charged by banks, commercial and industrial financing and the cost of services remained unchanged.