An index forecasting economic conditions in the United States continues to increase, signaling growth in the months ahead.

The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Index (LEI) advanced eight-tenths of a percent to 120.8 in December. Separate measures of current and past conditions also increased.

“The U.S. LEI ended 2021 on a rising trajectory, suggesting the economy will continue to expand well into the spring,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, the senior director of economic research at the Conference Board.

The COVID-19 pandemic, labor shortages, rising inflation and expected interest rate increases could moderate growth during the first quarter of 2022, Ozyildirim said, but the expansion should accelerate after that to above the pre-pandemic trend.

Gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services produced in the country, is forecast to grow at an annual rate of 35 percent for 2022, he said.

Over the past six months, the LEI has increased 4 percent, less than the 4.4 percent over the six months before that. Strengths among the leading indicators remain widespread, however,

For December, eight of 10 components of the LEI advanced, including building permits, interest rate spread, leading credit and new orders indexes, new orders for both consumer and capital goods and stock prices. A decrease in average weekly claims for unemployment benefits also bolstered the index. Consumer expectations for business conditions worsened. The average weekly manufacturing work week remained unchanged.

The Coincident Economic Index rose two-tenths of a percent to 107.4. The index has increased 1.3 percent over the past six months. 

For December, three of four indicators advanced: nonfarm payrolls, personal income and sales. Industrial production retreated.

The Lagging Economic Index edged up a tenth of a percent to 109.4. The index has increased six-tenths of a percent over the past three months. 

For December, three of seven components advanced, including commercial and industrial financing and inventories. A decrease in the average duration of unemployment also boosted the index. Labor and services costs declined, as did consumer credit. The average prime rates charged by banks held steady.