An index forecasting economic conditions in the United States continues to decline, signaling slowing conditions and the increasing possibility of a recession.

The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Index retreated four-tenths of a percent to 116.6 in July. Separate measures of current and past economic conditions both increased.

With declines in each of the last five months, the Leading Economic Index dropped 1.6 percent over the first half of 2022. The index increased 1.6 percent in the second half of 2021.

Ataman Ozilidirim, senior director of economics for the Conference Board, said the dropping index suggests the rising risk of recession. “Consumer pessimism and equity market volatility as well as slowing labor markets, housing construction and manufacturing new orders suggest that economic weakness will intensify and spread more broadly throughout the U.S. economy,” Ozilidirim said.

Gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services, decreased in the United States at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter and nine-tenths of a percent in the second quarter  — two quarters of consecutive declines in GDP that by one definition constitutes a recession.

Ozildirim said the Conference projects the U.S. economy won’t expand in the third quarter and could tip into a short, but mild, recession by the end of 2022 or the beginning of 2023.

The results of a survey the Conference Board conducted of more than 1,000 workers found that 41 percent of them believe the U.S. is already in recession and 33 percent expect a recession within six months.

While some companies have curtailed hiring or even cut staff, 80 percent of the workers responding to the survey said they feel secure in their jobs. Workers reported, in fact, they’re more concerned about declining stock markets than layoffs.

The Coincident Economic Index, a measure of current conditions, rose three-tenths of a percent to 108.6 in July. The index increased eight-tenths of a percent over the first half of 2022.

The Lagging Economic Index, a measure of past conditions, rose four-tenths of a point to 114.4 in July. The index increased 3.7 percent over the first half of 2022.