Consumer confidence rebounds, but concerns persist

Lynn Franco

A measure of consumer confidence has rebounded on more upbeat assessments of business and labor conditions, but concerns about inflation and recession persist.

“August’s improvement in confidence may help support spending, but inflation and additional (interest) rate hikes still pose risks to economic growth in the short-term,” said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board.

The New York-based think tank reported its Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rose 7.9 points between July and August to 103.2. The gain followed three consecutive months of declines.

Components of the CCI tracking present conditions and expectations both increased.

Franco said purchasing intentions increased as well. Plans for vacations reached an eight-month high.

The Conference Board bases the CCI on the results of monthly household surveys. Economists monitor the index because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity.

More optimistic assessments of current conditions pushed the present situation component of the index up 5.7 points to 145.4, the first gain since March.

The proportion of those responding to the survey upon which the August index was based who described business conditions as “good”  rose 2.9 points to 19.2 percent. The share of those who said conditions were “bad” fell 1 point to 23.2 percent.

The proportion of those who said jobs were “plentiful” fell 1.2 points to 48 percent. But the share of those who said jobs were “hard to get” also fell — a point to 11.4 percent.

More upbeat outlooks pushed the expectations component of the index up 9.5 points to 75.1. While the component rebounded from a nine-year low in July, the reading remains below 80 and suggests the risk of recession.

The share of those who said they expect business conditions to improve over the next six months rose 3.8 points to 17.5 percent. The proportion of those anticipating worsening conditions fell nine-tenths of a point to 22.3 percent.

The share of respondents expecting more jobs to become available rose 2.3 points to 17.4 percent. The proportion of those anticipating fewer jobs fell 1.8 points to 19.3 percent.