An index forecasting economic conditions in the United States has declined for a sixth straight month, signaling slowing and the risk of recession.

The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Index fell three-tenths of a percent to 116.2 in August. Separate measures of current and past conditions increased.

The Leading Economic Index dropped 2.7 percent between February and August, reversing a 1.7 percent gain over the six months before that. For August, five of 10 components of the index advanced.

Ataman Ozyildirim, the senior director of economics at the Conference Board,
said only two components boosted the Leading Economic Index over the past six months — the yield spread and a decline in initial claims for unemployment benefits.

“Labor market strength is expected to continue moderating in the months ahead,” Ozyildirim said. “Indeed, the average workweek in manufacturing contracted in four of the last six months — a notable sign as firms reduce hours before reducing their work forces.” 

Gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services, decreased in the United States at an annual rate of
1.6 percent in the first quarter and nine-tenths of a percent in the second quarter  — two quarters of consecutive declines in GDP that by one definition constitutes a recession.

The Conference Board, a think tank based in New York, projected a recession in coming quarters, Ozyildirim said. “Economic activity will continue slowing more broadly throughout the U.S. economy and likely to contract. A major driver of this slowdown has been the Federal Reserve’s rapid tightening of monetary policy to counter inflationary pressures.” 

The Coincident Economic Index, a measure of current conditions, edged up a tenth of a percent to 108.7 in August. The index advanced six-tenths of a percent between February and August, slower than the 1.5 percent gain over the previous
six-month span. 

For August, three of four components of the index advanced

The Lagging Economic Index, a measure of past conditions, rose seven-tenths of a percent to 115.4 in August. The index has increased 4.4 percent over the past six months, a faster pace than the 2.5 percent gain in the six-month period before that. 

For August, three of seven components of the index advanced.