
A monthly measure of consumer confidence has dropped on less optimistic outlooks for business and labor conditions.
The Conference Board reported its Consumer Confidence Index fell 1.9 points to 107.1 in January. A component of the index assessing current conditions advanced. But a component based on expectations retreated to a level that usually signals a coming recession.
“Consumers were less upbeat about the short-term outlook for jobs. They also expect business conditions to worsen in the near term,” said Lynn Franco, senior director of economics at the Conference Board. “Despite that, consumers expect their incomes to remain relatively stable in the months ahead.”
A think tank based in New York, the Conference Board bases the index on the results of household surveys.
More optimistic assessments of current conditions pushed the present situation component of the index up 3.5 points to 150.9.
The proportion of consumers responding to the survey upon which the January index was based who called business conditions “good” rose a point to 20.2 percent. The share of those who called conditions “bad” fell a half point to 19.2 percent.
The proportion of respondents who said jobs were “plentiful” rose 1.8 points to 48.2 percent. The share of those who said jobs were “hard to get” fell six-tenths of a point to 11.3 percent.
Less upbeat outlooks pulled the expectations components of the index down 5.6 points to 77.8. Readings below 80 usually signal a recession within the next year.
The share of respondents who expect business conditions to improve over the next six months fell 2.3 points to 18.6 percent. The proportion of those anticipating worsening conditions rose 1.7 points to 21.6 percent.
The share of those who expect more jobs to become available fell 2.1 points to 17.9 percent. The proportion of those anticipating fewer jobs rose 1.4 points to 20.1 percent.
While 17.2 percent of consumers said they expect their incomes to increase, down a tenth of a point from December, another 13.4 percent anticipated decreased incomes. That’s up a tenth of a point.