A monthly index forecasting economic conditions in the United States continues to retreat, signaling slowing ahead.

The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Index fell seven-tenths of a percent to 106.7 in May.

Separate measures of current and past conditions increased.

The leading index dropped 4.3 percent over the last six months and has declined in each of the last 14 months.

“Rising interest rates paired with persistent inflation will continue to further dampen economic activity,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at the Conference Board.

The New York-based think tank projects the economy to contract over the third quarter of 2023 to first quarter of 2024 with a continued tight monetary supply and lower government spending.

For May, four of 10 components of the leading index retreated, including consumer expectations for business conditions, interest rate spread and leading credit and new orders indexes. Building permits, new orders for consumer goods and stock prices advanced. A decrease in weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits also bolstered the index. Average weekly manufacturing hours and new orders for capital goods held steady.

The Coincident Economic Index rose two-tenths of a percent to 110.2 The index increased eight-tenths of percent over the past six months.

For May, three of four indicators of the index increased — nonfarm payrolls, personal income and sales. Industrial production decreased.

The Lagging Economic Index edged up a tenth of a percent to 118.4. The index held steady over the past three months.

For May, four of seven components of the index retreated, including the change in cost of labor and services and commercial and industrial financing. An increase in the duration of unemployment also pulled down the index. The average prime rate charged by banks increased. Consumer credit and inventories remained unchanged.