Consumer Confidence Index climbs to two-year high

Dana Peterson

A measure of consumer confidence has rebounded to its highest level in two years on more upbeat assessments of business and labor conditions.

“Headline confidence appears to have broken out of the sideways trend that prevailed for much of the last year,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board.

The New York-based think tank reported its Consumer Confidence Index rose 6.9 points to 117 in July. That’s the highest level since July 2021.

Despite rising interest rates, consumers were more upbeat across all age groups and among those earning less than $50,000 a year and more than $100,000, Peterson said. That likely reflected lower inflation and a tight labor market.

Although consumers are less convinced of a recession, the Conference Board still forecasts one, likely before the end of the year.

Consumers responding to the survey upon which the July index was based said they expect to spend less on such discretionary services as travel and recreation, but more on such necessities as health care.

More optimistic assessments of current business and labor conditions pushed up the present situation component of the index 4.7 points between June and July to 160.

The portion of consumers who called business conditions “good” fell 1.5 points to 21.9 percent. The share of consumers who called conditions “bad” edged down a tenth of a point to 15.2 percent.

The proportion of consumers who said jobs were “plentiful” rose 1.5 points to 46.9 percent. The share of those who said jobs were “hard to get” fell 2.9 points to 9.7 percent.

Improving outlooks pushed up the expectations component of the index 8.3 points to 88.3. With the exception of an uptick in December, the reading had remained below 80 since February 2022. That’s a level associated with the onset of a recession within a year.

The share of consumers who said they expect business conditions to improve over the next six months rose 2.5 points to 17.1 percent. The proportion of those anticipating worsening conditions fell 3.7 points to 14 percent.

The share of consumers who expect more jobs to become available in coming months increased a point to 16.4 percent. The proportion of those forecasting fewer jobs decreased 1.9 points to 14.8 percent.

While 16.3 percent of consumers said they expect their incomes to increase, down 2.3 points from June, 9.7 percent anticipated decreased incomes. That’s down 2.1 points from a month ago.

Asked to assess their family financial situations, 31.6 percent of consumers said their situations were “good,” up 2.8 points from June. Another 17.6 percent called their situations “bad,” down a point from last month.