
A measure of consumer confidence has retreated on less upbeat assessments of business and labor conditions.
The Conference Board reported its Consumer Confidence Index dropped 7.9 points to 106.1 in August. Measures of current conditions and short-term expectations both fell.
“August’s disappointing headline number reflected dips in both the current conditions and expectations indexes. Write-in responses showed that consumers were once again preoccupied with rising prices in general and for groceries and gasoline in particular,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist of the Conference Board.
The New York-based think tank bases the index on the results of monthly household surveys. Economists monitor the results because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity.
Peterson said the August survey results reflected a pullback in confidence among all age groups and was most notable for consumers with annual household incomes below $50,000 and above $100,000.
The proportion of consumers who said they believe a recession is somewhat or very likely decreased, but remained elevated at 69 percent, she said. The Conference Board continues to forecast a recession, likely before the end of the year.
Plans to purchase automobiles and appliances continued to trend upward. But plans to purchase homes trended downward as a result of rising interest rates on mortgages. Consumers still plan to go on vacation, especially abroad.
Less optimistic assessments of current business and labor conditions pulled down the present situation component of the index 8.2 points to 144.8.
The portion of consumers who responded to the survey upon which the August index was based who called business conditions “good” remained unchanged from July at 20.7 percent. But the share of those who called conditions “bad” rose a point to 17.2 percent.
The proportion of consumers who said jobs were “plentiful” fell 3.4 points to 40.3 percent. The share of those who said jobs were “hard to get” rose 2.8 points to 14.1 percent.
Less upbeat outlooks pulled down the expectations component of the index 7.8 points between July and August. At 80.2, the latest reading is just above the level that historically signals a recession within the next year.
“Consumers may be hearing more bad news about corporate earnings, while job openings are narrowing and interest rates continue to rise — making big-ticket items more expensive,” Peterson said.
The share of consumers who said they expect business conditions to improve over the next six months fell a point to 16.2 percent. The proportion of those who anticipated worsening conditions rose 2.3 points to 16.8 percent.
The share of consumers who said they expect more jobs to become available in coming months edged up a tenth of a point to 16.7 percent. But the share of those who forecasted fewer jobs rose more — 2.4 points to 18 percent.
Asked to assess their family financial situations, the proportion of respondents who said their situations were “good” decreased while the share of those who said their conditions were “bad” increased. A measure of expected family finances in six months also softened.