A monthly index forecasting economic conditions in the United States edged down, signaling slowing and the continued risk of recession.

The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Index slipped a tenth of a percent to 103.1 in December. A separate measure of past conditions also declined, while a measure of current conditions increased.

Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at the Conference Board, said declines in some leading indicators offset gains in others, a sign of underlying weakness in the U.S. economy.

While the pace of six-month and 12-month declines in the Leading Economic Index have slowed, they still suggest a downturn in gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services produced in the country, she said. “Overall, we expect GDP growth to turn negative in Q2 and Q3 of 2024, but begin to recover late this year.”

The Leading Economic Index declined 2.9 percent over the past six months, less than the 4.5 percent drop over the six months before that. Weaknesses among the leading indicators remained more widespread.

By comparison, GDP grew at an annual rate of 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2023 and 2.1 percent in the second quarter of last year.

For December, six of 10 indicators of the Leading Economic Index advanced, including building permits, a leading credit index, new orders for consumer and capital goods and stock prices. A decline in average weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits also bolstered the index. Average weekly manufacturing hours, consumer expectations for business conditions, interest rate spread and a new orders index retreated.

The Coincident Economic Index rose two-tenths of a percent 111.7. The index advanced 1.1 percent over the past six months.

For December, all four indicators of the Coincident Economic Index increased — industrial production, nonfarm payrolls, personal income and sales.

The Lagging Economic Index declined two-tenths of a percent to 118.4. The index rose a half a percent over the past three months.

For December, only the change in cost of services advanced. Commercial and industrial financing and labor costs retreated. An increase in the average duration of unemployment also pulled down the index. The average prime rate, consumer credit and inventories held steady.