A monthly index forecasting economic conditions in the United States continues to decline, but no longer signals a recession.

The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Index fell four-tenths of a percent to 102.7 in January. Separate measures of current and past conditions both increased.

Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at the Conference Board, said the leading index continues to signal headwinds to economic activity, but not a recession.

“For the first time in the past two years, six out 10 components were positive contributors over the past six-month period,” she said. “As a result, the leading index currently does not signal recession ahead. While no longer forecasting a recession in 2024, we do expect real (gross domestic product) growth to slow to near 0 percent over Q2 and Q3.”

The Leading Economic Index fell 3 percent over the six-month period ending in January, less than the 4.1 percent drop over the six months before that. Weaknesses among leading indicators were less widespread as six of 10 components advanced between July 2023 and January 2024.

Gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services produced in the country, increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 after growing at an annual rate of 4.9 percent in the third quarter.

For January, five of 10 components of the leading index retreated — average weekly manufacturing hours, building permits, consumer expectations, interest rate spread and a new orders index. Three components advanced — a leading credit index, new orders for consumer goods and stock prices. New orders for capital goods held steady, as did average weekly claims for unemployment insurance.

The Coincident Economic Index rose two-tenths of a percent to 112.1. The index rose 1 percent over the previous six months. For January, three of four components increased — nonfarm payrolls, personal income and sales. Industrial production decreased.

The Lagging Economic Index advanced four-tenths of a percent to 118.6. The index rose four-tenths of a percent over the past three months. For January, four of seven components increased, including consumer credit, the cost of services and inventories. A decrease in the average duration of unemployment also bolstered the index. Labor costs and commercial and industrial financing decreased. The average prime rate charged by banks held steady.