A monthly index forecasting economic conditions in the United States increased for the first time in two years, but doesn’t yet signal growth ahead.

The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Index edged up a tenth of a point to 102.8 in February. Separate measures of current and past conditions also increased.

Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at the Conference Board, said the leading index increased for the first time since February 2022, but still suggests there could be headwinds to growth.

The New York-based think tank projects growth in gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services produced in the country, to slow during the second and third quarters of 2024 as rising consumer debt and elevated interest rates affect consumer spending.

The Leading Economic Index fell 2.6 percent over the six-month period ending in February, but that’s less than the 3.8 percent decline over the six months before that. Weaknesses among leading indicators were more widespread as only three of 10 components advanced between August 2023 and February 2024.

Gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 after growing 4.9 percent in the third quarter.

For February, seven of 10 components of the leading index increased, including average weekly manufacturing hours, building permits, a leading credit index,  new orders for both capital and consumer goods and stock prices. A decrease in average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance also bolstered the index. Consumer expectations for business conditions, the interest rate stead and a new orders index decreased.

The Coincident Economic Index rose two-tenths of a percent to 112.3. The index rose 1.1 percent over the previous six months. For February, all four components increased — industrial production, nonfarm payrolls, personal income and sales.

The Lagging Economic Index advanced three-tenths of a percent to 118.8. The index rose a tenth of a percent over the past three months. For February, four of seven components increased, including commercial and industrial financing, the change in the price services, consumer credit and inventories. Labor costs and an increase in the average duration of unemployment pulled down the index. The average prime rate charged by banks held steady.