Consumer Confidence Index retreats for a third straight month

Dana Peterson

A monthly measure of consumer confidence declined for a third straight month on less upbeat assessments of labor and business conditions.

The Conference Board reported its Consumer Confidence Index retreated to 97 in April, down from a revised 103.1 in March. Measures of current conditions and short-term expectations both decreased.

“Confidence retreated further in April, reaching its lowest level since July 2022 as consumers became less positive about the current labor market situation and more concerned about future business conditions, job availability and income,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist of the Conference Board.

The New York-based think tank bases the index on the results of monthly household surveys.

Peterson said the latest results reflect concerns about higher prices, politics and global conflicts. The perceived likelihood of a recession over the next year rose slightly, but remained well below the May 2023 peak, she said.

Less upbeat assessments of labor conditions pulled down the present situation component of the index 3.9 points between March and April to 142.9.

The proportion of consumers responding to the survey upon which the April index was based who called business conditions good rose 1.4 points to 20.6 percent. The share of those who called business conditions bad edged down two-tenths of a point to 17.4 percent.

But the proportion of consumers who said jobs were plentiful fell 1.5 points to 40.2 percent. The share of those who said jobs were hard to get rose 2.7 points to 14.9 percent.

Less optimistic outlooks pulled down the expectations component of the index 7.6 points to 66.4. Readings below 80 often signal an impending recession.

The share of consumers who expected business conditions to improve over the next six months fell 1.5 points to 12.8 percent. The proportion of those who anticipated worsening conditions rose 1.4 points to 19.9 percent.

The share of consumers who expected more jobs to become available fell 2.6 points to 11.7 percent. The proportion of those who anticipated fewer jobs rose eight-tenths of a point to 19.6 percent.

While 15.4 percent of consumers expected their incomes to increase — down 1.9 points from March — the share of those who expected their incomes to decrease rose four-tenths of a point to 13.9 percent.