Consumer Confidence Index rebounds

Dana Peterson

A measure of consumer confidence rebounded after three straight months of declines on more upbeat assessments of business and labor conditions.

The Conference Board reported its Consumer Confidence Index rose 4.5 points to 102 in May. Components of the index tracking assessments of current conditions and short-term expectations both increased.

“Looking ahead, fewer consumers expected deterioration in future business conditions, job availability and income,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist of the Conference Board. “Nonetheless, the overall confidence gauge remained within the relatively narrow range it has been hovering in for more than two years.”

The New York based think tank bases the Consumer Confidence Index on the results of monthly household surveys. Economists closely monitor the index because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity.

Peterson said consumers reported higher prices, especially for groceries, and expected higher inflation and interest rates. The perceived likelihood of a recession also increased.

Plans for home purchases remained at their lowest level since August 2012, but expected purchases of automobiles and appliances increased.

For May, more optimistic assessments of current business and labor conditions pushed up the present situation component of the index 2.5 points  to 143.1.

The proportion of consumers who responded to the survey upon which the May index was based who described business conditions good fell a half point from April to 20.3 percent. The share of those who called conditions bad held steady at 17.6 percent.

The proportion of those said jobs were plentiful decreased nine-tenths of a point to 37.5 percent. But the share of those who called jobs hard to get fell more — two points to 13.5 percent.

More optimistic outlooks pushed up the expectations component of the index 5.8 points. But at 74.6, the latest reading remained below 80, a threshold that usually signals an impending recession.

The share of consumers who expected business conditions to improve over the next six months edged down a tenth of a point to 13.3 percent. But the proportion of those who expected worsening conditions fell more — 2.3 points to 16.8 percent.

The share of consumers who expected more jobs to become available rose three-tenths of a point to 12.6 percent. The proportion of those who anticipated fewer jobs fell 1.6 points to 18.2 percent.

While 16.9 percent of consumers expected their incomes to increase — up a tenth of a point from April — the share of those who anticipated their incomes to decrease dropped three points to 11 percent.