A monthly index forecasting economic conditions in the United States continues to decline — signaling slowing, but not recession.

The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell a half of a percent to 101.2 in May. A separate measure of current conditions increased. A measure of past conditions decreased.

Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at the Conference Board, said the LEI retreated on declines in building permits as well as consumer concerns about business conditions. “While the index’s six-month growth rate remained firmly negative, the LEI doesn’t currently signal a recession.”

The Conference Board projects gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services produced in the country, to slow to an annual rate of under 1 percent over the second and third quarters.

For the past six months, the LEI fell 2 percent, less than the 3.4 percent decline over the six months before that. By comparison, GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2024 and 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023.

For May, five of 10 indicators of the LEI advanced, including average weekly manufacturing hours, a leading credit index, new orders for consumer and capital goods and stock prices. Building permits, consumer expectations, interest rate spread and a new orders index retreated. An increased in average weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits also pulled down the index.

The Coincident Economic Index rose four-tenths of a percent to 112.4. The index increased six-tenths of a point over the past six months.

For May, all four indicators of the index advanced: industrial production, nonfarm payrolls, personal income and sales.

The Lagging Economic Index edged down a tenth of a percent to 119.4. The index increased three-tenths of a percent over the past three months.

For May, three indicators of the index declined, including labor and service costs. An increase in the average duration of unemployment also pulled down the index. Commercial and industrial financing and consumer credit advanced. The average prime rate charged by banks and inventories held steady.