A quarterly measure of confidence among business executives has retreated on a more cautious outlook for the United States economy,

The Conference Board reported its Measure of CEO Confidence fell two points for the fourth quarter. At 46, the latest reading reflected more negative than positive responses to the survey upon which the index was based.

The Conference Board conducts the survey in collaboration with the Business Council.

“A large majority of CEOs continue to expect a U.S. recession ahead. But that consensus receded notably over the course of 2023,” said Roger Ferguson Jr., both a trustee of the Conference Board and vice chairman of the Business Council.

While 72 percent of the CEOs who responded to the fourth quarter survey said they’re preparing for a recession over the next 12 to 18 months, that’s down from 93 percent at the start of the year, Ferguson said.

“Of those, 69 percent expect a brief and shallow recession, with limited global spillovers. And only 3 percent are preparing for a deep U.S. recession,” he said.

Still, assessments of current conditions and expectations for the future were less upbeat.

For the fourth quarter, 18 percent of CEOs said general economic conditions were better than they were six months ago. That’s down from 28 percent in the third quarter.

While 19 percent of CEOs said they expect conditions to improve, 47 percent said they anticipated worsening conditions over the next six months.

In evaluating their industries, 26 percent of CEOs said they expected conditions to improve over the next six months, down from 29 percent in the third quarter. Another 29 percent forecast worsening conditions.

Dana Peterson, chief economist of the Conference Board, said CEOs continue to hire in the midst of a tight labor market with 38 percent of those who responded to the fourth quarter survey reporting plans to expand staffing over the next year.

“Only 13 percent of CEOs expect to cut workers, with the remaining 49 percent of CEOs anticipating little change in their workforces — a likely sign of labor hoarding,” Peterson said.

Attracting qualified workers has become somewhat less difficult. While 71 percent of CEOs said they still plan to increase wages by more than 3 percent over the next year, others look to make smaller wage increases or no changes, Peterson said.

Meanwhile, 27 percent of CEOs said they expect their capital budgets to increase over the next year, up from 22 percent during the third quarter.