Consumer Confidence Index rebounds

Lynn Franco

A measure of consumer confidence has rebounded on more upbeat expectations for business and labor conditions as well as plans to make big purchases and take vacations.

The Conference Board reported its Consumer Confidence Index rose four points to 113.8 in October. The gain reversed a three-month decline. Components of the index tracking assessments of current conditions as well as short-term expectations both increased.

Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, said concerns about the effects of the Delta variant of COVID-19 have eased. While concerns over inflation rose to a 13-year high, the effect on confidence was muted.

“The proportion of consumers planning to purchase homes, automobiles and major appliances all increased in October — a sign that consumer spending will continue to support economic growth through the final months of 2021,” Franco said. “Likewise, nearly half of respondents said they intend to take a vacation within the next six months — the highest level since February 2020, a reflection of the ongoing resurgence in consumers’ willingness to travel and spend on in-person services.”

The business research and membership group bases the Consumer Confidence Index on the results of monthly household surveys. Economists monitor the index because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity.

More upbeat assessments of current conditions pushed up the present situation component of the index 3.1 points to 147.4.

The proportion of consumers responding to the survey upon which the October index was based who described business conditions as “good” fell a half point to 18.6 percent. But the share of those who called conditions “bad” also fell — four-tenths of a point to 24.9 percent.

The proportion of those who said jobs are “plentiful” dropped nine-tenths of a point to 55.6 percent. But the share of those who said jobs are “hard to get” fell 2.4 points to 10.6 percent.

More optimistic outlooks pushed up the expectations component of the index 4.6 points to 91.3.

The share of consumers who said they expect business conditions to improve over in six months increased 2.6 points to 24.3 percent. The proportion of those who said they anticipate worsening conditions also rose — 3.5 points to 21.1 percent.

The share of consumers who expect more jobs to become available in coming months rose 4.1 points to 25.4 percent. The proportion of those forecasting fewer jobs decreased 1.6 points to 18.3 percent.

While 18.7 percent of consumers said they expect their incomes to increase — up 1.8 points from September — another 11.3 percent said they anticipated lower earnings. That’s down a tenth of a point.