
A measure of consumer confidence continues to retreat on less optimistic assessments of business and labor conditions that could signal recession.
The Conference Board reported its Consumer Confidence Index fell two points to 100.2 in November. Components of the index tracking the current situation and short-term expectations declined.
Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, said the declines reflect a number of factors.
“The Present Situation Index moderated further and continues to suggest the economy has lost momentum as the year winds down,” Franco said. “Consumers’ expectations regarding the short-term outlook remained gloomy.”
Inflation and higher prices for gasoline and food dampened plans to purchase homes, automobiles and appliances, she said. “The combination of inflation and interest rate hikes will continue to pose challenges to confidence and economic growth into early 2023.”
The Conference Board, a think tank based in New York, bases the Consumer Confidence Index on the results of monthly household surveys. Economists monitor the index because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity.
Less upbeat assessments of current conditions pulled down the Present Situation Index 1.3 points to 137.4.
The proportion of consumers responding to the survey upon which the November index was based who described business conditions as “good” rose a half point to 18.2 percent. But the share of those who said conditions were “bad” rose more — 2.7 points to 26.7 percent.
The proportion of those who said jobs were “plentiful” rose a point to 45.8 percent. The share of those who said jobs were “hard to get” remained unchanged at 13 percent.
Less optimistic outlooks pulled down the Expectations Index 2.5 points. At 75.4, the latest reading signals the increased likelihood of a recession.
The share of consumers who expected business conditions to improve over the next six months increased three-tenths of a point to 19.9 percent. The proportion of those who anticipated worsening conditions decreased 1.6 points to 22.7 percent.
The share of those who expected more jobs to become available in coming months fell nine-tenths of a point to 18.6 percent. The proportion of those who anticipated fewer jobs rose six-tenths of a point to 21.4 percent.
While 17.2 percent of consumers expected their incomes to increase, 16.6 percent anticipated decreases.