
A monthly measure of consumer confidence dropped in September on less upbeat assessments of business and labor conditions.
The Conference Board reported its Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.9 points to 98.7. The monthly decline was the largest since August 2021.
Components of the index tracking current conditions and short-term expectations both decreased.
“Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned negative, while views of the current labor market situation softened further,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board. “Consumers were also more pessimistic about future labor market conditions and less positive about future business conditions and future income.”
The Conference Board, a think tank based in New York, bases the Consumer Confidence Index on the results of monthly household surveys. Economists monitor the index because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity in the United States.
“The deterioration across the index’s main components likely reflected consumers’ concerns about the labor market and reactions to fewer hours, slower payroll increases, fewer job openings — even if the labor market remains quite healthy with low unemployment, few layoffs and elevated wages,” Peterson said.
The proportion of consumers anticipating a recession over the next year remained low, she said. But there was a slight uptick in the share of consumers who believed the U.S. economy was already in recession
The proportion of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the next year dropped for a fourth consecutive month to 46.5 percent. That’s the lowest level since February.
Less upbeat assessments of current conditions pulled down the present situation component of the index 10.3 points to 124.3.
The proportion of consumers responding to the survey upon which the September index was based who called business conditions good fell 2.3 points to 18.8 percent. The share of those who said conditions were bad increased 2.9 points to 20.2 percent.
The proportion of consumers who said jobs were plentiful declined 1.8 points to 30.9 percent. The share of those who said jobs were hard to get advanced 1.5 points to 18.3 percent.
Consumers also were less optimistic in their short-term outlooks, pulling down the expectations component of the index 4.6 points to 81.7. The index has remained above 80 for three months. Readings below 80 typically signal an impending recession.
The share of consumers who expected business conditions to improve over the next six months retreated six-tenths of a point to 18.5 percent. The proportion of those who expected worsening conditions climbed 2.1 points to 16.6 percent.
The share of consumers who expected more jobs to become available in coming months edged up a tenth of a point to 16.4 percent. But the proportion of those expecting fewer jobs increased more — 1.3 points to 18.3 percent.
While 18 percent of consumers expected their incomes to increase, 13 percent anticipated decreases.